AI · resolved market
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6432e0721d1b910078dd38141c21e6e2f6c98bff4d9f82313ec227017036f120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $171,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 23c | 39,916$9,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,251.06 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 17c | 10,281$1,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,706.59 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…1083backed No | 70c | 5,854$4,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,764.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 75c | 4,300$3,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.54 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…01debacked Yes | 19c | 2,983$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 75c | 2,800$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +17.3wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…0debbacked Yes | 7c | 2,596$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed No | 65c | 2,236$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.59 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 23c | 2,202$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc51…6566backed No | 78c | 2,095$1,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 14c | 1,751$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,710$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.47 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 1,297$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.81 | 461 | 38.8%179 W · 282 L | -32.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,221$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…bf35backed Yes | 39c | 1,161$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 77c | 1,096$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.15 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed No | 78c | 1,053$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.16 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 77c | 980.84$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.87 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec5…4168backed No | 78c | 820.51$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 812.69$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 179 | 24%43 W · 136 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…9445backed Yes | 14c | 799.18$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9de…5c42backed Yes | 2c | 689.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76f…3445backed Yes | 4c | 679.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x626e…fa46backed Yes | 34c | 600.26$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 10c | 566.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 18c | 559.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 417 | 7.4%31 W · 386 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 68c | 555$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.82 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked Yes | 52c | 552.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.67 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc0…f20bbacked Yes | 24c | 542.29$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…3cd9backed Yes | 20c | 524.52$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b9…4d3abacked No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27da…d24abacked Yes | 6c | 459.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 457.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 1,368 | 6.8%93 W · 1,275 L | -20.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2d…d45cbacked No | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c15…5b4bbacked No | 80c | 437.5$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 434.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Yes | 12c | 423.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cf…25e0backed Yes | 45c | 422$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 9c | 417.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 82 | 23.2%19 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 9c | 410$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…6857backed No | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked No | 75c | 398.62$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 8c | 384.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked No | 75c | 344$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.64 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…e792backed Yes | 59c | 338.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed No | 65c | 322.37$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1f…a246backed No | 78c | 320.51$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 12c | 285$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 56c | 267.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 71c | 239.22$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…6d71backed No | 78c | 225.47$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x456f…98d5backed No | 45c | 224.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7c…1dc7backed No | 59c | 211.52$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 47c | 211.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed No | 37c | 206.31$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.12 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 66c | 204.55$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0551…3d39backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4f…a849backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…928fbacked No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 7c | 198.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 192$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed No | 61c | 182.52$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 13c | 178.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked No | 52c | 176.13$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked No | 80c | 175.33$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 63c | 169.7$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 45c | 167.12$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.55 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4443…21b3backed Yes | 40c | 163.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 17c | 158.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5e4bbacked No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 38c | 135.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 49c | 132.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked Yes | 65c | 131.1$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed No | 80c | 129.26$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ea…a98fbacked No | 78c | 127.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…9c7fbacked No | 38c | 126.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…b79fbacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 59c | 113.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed No | 75c | 111$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 107.49$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…f0cbbacked Yes | 37c | 106.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…4037backed Yes | 13c | 105.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…4cc9backed No | 52c | 105.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…7627backed Yes | 15c | 103.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…c08dbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e1…3b95backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9891…d78dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…61dcbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752c…5cd0backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…87a0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked No | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11b…a68bbacked Yes | 60c | 96.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?this page
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.