TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$516,706
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$517,925

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $516,706 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 328 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes75c26,686$19,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,789.3728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ac…0a7abacked No50c13,000$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,500250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No9c11,399$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.724316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No16c11,141$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.832619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8990…091abacked Yes75c9,163$6,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,290.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No18c8,788$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.585219.2%10 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a17…ad3bbacked No5c7,543$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc20c…e2bdbacked Yes50c7,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5001250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+48.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad1f…5a3fbacked No27c6,601$1,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,773.32540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed No0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20468.7%4 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick9cpaid-54.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No8c3,984$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.54633.2%2 W · 61 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No14c3,769$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.096836.8%25 W · 43 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No13c3,721$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.388013.8%11 W · 69 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No5c3,707$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.36330%0 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No7c3,437$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.161644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No15c3,385$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.951560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6735…f5b7backed No12c3,305$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.56742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No10c3,291$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.295121.6%11 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No27c2,961$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.4260%0 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc77a…daf8backed No8c2,871$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.661816.7%3 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+64.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No7c2,709$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.28595.1%3 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xece0…7cdfbacked No39c2,548$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed No1c2,484$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.87110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No13c2,442$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No23c2,442$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.88450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86ff…9440backed No13c2,363$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1b…2552backed No34c2,308$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.17520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No10c2,302$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.23862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+25.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes75c2,300$1,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No24c2,228$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.832842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+47%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No7c2,199$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.88614.9%3 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3822…b720backed No39c2,153$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.15425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-43.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6bc7…4ad4backed No7c2,072$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.232347.8%11 W · 12 L+5.3wins+0.23per pick25cpaid+96.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No24c2,031$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+39.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a22…5692backed No3c2,026$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdb7…4ef3backed Yes78c1,932$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.69650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5602…acc9backed No21c1,902$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.671060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No11c1,832$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.72334.8%8 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick20cpaid+43.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5319…f635backed Yes75c1,750$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x164a…d563backed No19c1,716$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…2220backed No22c1,563$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22b6…34cabacked Yes66c1,510$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No7c1,503$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.35474.3%2 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfebe…2984backed No8c1,502$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.72425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes64c1,482$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.541936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x309f…b99cbacked Yes53c1,464$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.32837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid-41.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x092c…3175backed Yes78c1,411$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.243100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+486.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd00…284ebacked No31c1,358$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf159…224abacked No17c1,318$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked No7c1,274$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.61326.3%2 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed No17c1,265$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.012365.2%15 W · 8 L+5.1wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+51.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked No7c1,257$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.31702.9%2 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x488d…0e64backed Yes80c1,256$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.7366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No22c1,239$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No7c1,156$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.55449.1%4 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick4cpaid+50.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed No18c1,155$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.941618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked Yes78c1,110$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes70c1,086$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3261241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-39.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fb1…36f3backed No10c1,013$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.23140%0 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked No8c1,002$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9470%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No25c1,000$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0f7…683cbacked No35c990.03$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked No3c963.12$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.76320%0 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa3d…7198backed No41c961.81$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No22c944.15$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.617435.1%26 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-37.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed No19c882$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.22520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-39.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd02a…7abfbacked Yes74c866$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No21c816.36$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f52…43debacked Yes53c770.01$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66f1…2dd9backed No4c764.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.921020%2 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2708…ad2ebacked Yes60c758.85$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No45c750$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x706c…7752backed No21c719.41$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.57933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+1,596.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes42c702.72$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40fe…3bfdbacked Yes65c695.51$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.513100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09cc…421abacked Yes61c686.7$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.27250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed No8c686.06$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.972030%6 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed Yes57c685$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.576100%6 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x20fa…19f7backed Yes69c683.16$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8c…26e9backed Yes68c679.51$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5c3…0c52backed No3c672$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad68…2c6dbacked Yes75c666.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.67425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick67cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e30…1e50backed Yes75c654.99$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d57…bfc5backed No43c649.99$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.7140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45a2…3c01backed Yes69c641.05$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x231e…9297backed No12c635$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.65333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-55.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No3c623.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+61.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc56a…65fdbacked No9c607.62$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed No8c599.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462010%2 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+54.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f7f…e26cbacked No17c598.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe23…6f64backed No3c580.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x819e…e967backed Yes54c578.08$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.742412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-69.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed No7c571.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6467…7cadbacked Yes75c551.28$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff73…a11dbacked Yes70c543.7$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3336…87adbacked No18c543.47$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.61922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed No46c528.87$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b92…45eebacked Yes61c520.54$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.8650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No42c509.87$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa636…d7e4backed No10c506.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.