Venezuela · resolved market

Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 13?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f5d4d47cf52fc799424c77fc9efcf0cc26f53c6e8427fa1d49052ebc10cc2e5

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $156,535
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $176,664

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,535 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5273…d975backed Yes	1c	19,500$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.94	46	0%0 W · 46 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes	1c	13,682$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.88	70	2.9%2 W · 68 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-81.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe8…f492backed Yes	1c	10,199$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.5	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes	1c	9,403$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	31	0%0 W · 31 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes	1c	7,921$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.06	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes	1c	5,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+2.7wins	+0.12per pick	14cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	1c	4,502$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.28	50	14%7 W · 43 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-69%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes	2c	3,500$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.56	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…e7bebacked Yes	3c	3,046$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes	3c	2,009$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.25	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdebd…416abacked Yes	1c	2,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c0e…1411backed Yes	3c	2,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes	1c	2,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,914$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.76	164	4.9%8 W · 156 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-75.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	1c	1,902$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.52	23	0%0 W · 23 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c60…0b12backed Yes	2c	1,635$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	7cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes	1c	1,588$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.59	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	1c	1,249$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.24	26	0%0 W · 26 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbab9…9d74backed Yes	1c	1,158$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.76	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes	2c	950$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.75	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eac…d2b8backed Yes	11c	909.17$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes	1c	905.49$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.57	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	+3.3wins	+0.11per pick	30cpaid	-8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	1c	838.18$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	32	0%0 W · 32 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed Yes	2c	737.33$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.53	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d86…5073backed Yes	5c	648.65$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.28	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0542…69babacked Yes	13c	640.54$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	2c	599.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	20	10%2 W · 18 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+54.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	599.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	61	4.9%3 W · 58 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	556.42$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.62	47	4.3%2 W · 45 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d61…0834backed Yes	9c	170$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 13?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event