TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 23?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$119,274
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,594

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,274 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes1c16,649$94 inLost-$94.29702.9%2 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes1c9,208$80 inLost-$79.771338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick24cpaid-18.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c6,081$50 inLost-$50.421644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x656e…65d2backed Yes0c5,409$16 inLost-$15.53120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes1c5,000$50 inLost-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fe8…f492backed Yes1c5,000$37 inLost-$37.5446.8%3 W · 41 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-68.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4e90…4d95backed Yes2c4,938$122 inLost-$121.87120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes0c3,480$14 inLost-$14.421921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-67.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c3,319$23 inLost-$22.56319.7%3 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-50%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes1c3,236$28 inLost-$28.29320%0 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5273…d975backed Yes1c2,642$35 inLost-$34.91460%0 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes1c2,101$28 inLost-$28.09812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-80.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,546$13 inLost-$13.05595.1%3 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes1c1,500$15 inLost-$15326.3%2 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-82.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d61…0834backed Yes2c1,418$25 inLost-$25520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-54.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes1c1,386$14 inLost-$145219.2%10 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bb3…5a71backed Yes3c1,376$42 inLost-$41.58520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+81.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd863…0e2cbacked Yes2c1,200$27 inLost-$26.991020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes1c1,127$12 inLost-$12.35260%0 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc45…6805backed Yes2c963.78$15 inLost-$1570%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c947.84$14 inLost-$14.3633.2%2 W · 61 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd10…a689backed Yes6c872.48$52 inLost-$5250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9e4c…4793backed Yes2c825.43$20 inLost-$20650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x568d…0f82backed Yes3c447.78$12 inLost-$1260%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b3f…5425backed Yes4c269$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.