TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 16?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$246,708
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$223,086

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $246,708 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes0c58,577$169 inLost-$168.931414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes1c44,872$252 inLost-$252.16702.9%2 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes0c16,479$55 inLost-$54.75310%0 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes1c6,550$42 inLost-$42.45014%7 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x514c…2485backed Yes0c5,577$17 inLost-$16.731330.8%4 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.22per pick9cpaid+94%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes1c5,225$33 inLost-$32.6238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-80.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c0e…1411backed Yes1c5,000$40 inLost-$402010%2 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-68.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes0c4,969$15 inLost-$14.661250%6 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes0c4,605$12 inLost-$11.61468.7%4 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick9cpaid-54.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe8…f492backed Yes1c4,358$29 inLost-$28.58446.8%3 W · 41 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-68.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x49ae…de36backed Yes3c3,568$97 inLost-$96.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes1c3,470$38 inLost-$38.03280%0 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes1c2,895$27 inLost-$26.96320%0 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5273…d975backed Yes1c2,868$41 inLost-$41.06460%0 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes1c2,454$33 inLost-$32.585219.2%10 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,372$17 inLost-$16.821644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c60…0b12backed Yes2c1,174$19 inLost-$191216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc7…f15fbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost-$10.4860%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x949a…721cbacked Yes3c999.96$26 inLost-$261323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick9cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc68d…ec12backed Yes2c867.77$20 inLost-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid-37%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5039…946dbacked Yes3c799.95$22 inLost-$21.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.