Venezuela · resolved market

Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 2?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf151340fe072be0bb4fc8ab9c100169804cc77ccff00af0ea3527a832004888

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 3, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $143,803
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $137,273

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,803 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5273…d975backed Yes	2c	13,512$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.14	46	0%0 W · 46 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fe8…f492backed Yes	2c	12,538$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.07	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes	1c	8,584$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.79	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-88%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes	1c	7,679$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.96	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-86.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	7,338$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.11	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes	2c	6,651$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.1	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	2c	6,550$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.52	50	14%7 W · 43 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-69%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes	1c	4,681$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.06	31	0%0 W · 31 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…357dbacked Yes	5c	4,086$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c0e…1411backed Yes	1c	3,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes	2c	3,000$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes	2c	2,569$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.95	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	5cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	3c	2,559$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.8	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes	3c	2,524$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.08	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,227$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.85	164	4.9%8 W · 156 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-75.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes	2c	1,907$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.14	70	2.9%2 W · 68 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-81.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes	2c	1,683$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.35	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes	2c	1,574$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.06	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	+3.3wins	+0.11per pick	30cpaid	-8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	2c	1,356$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.22	23	0%0 W · 23 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes	4c	1,136$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	2c	1,019$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.37	26	0%0 W · 26 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes	4c	1,000$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.6	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd91c…3830backed Yes	2c	854.49$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes	2c	825$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	789.21$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.05	74	35.1%26 W · 48 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes	3c	725$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.44	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x208d…6fb3backed Yes	3c	699.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9e…de20backed Yes	9c	651.37$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.27	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes	2c	569.6$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	20	35%7 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	30cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes	5c	452.95$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.41	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed Yes	3c	405.27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0308…edf7backed Yes	10c	230$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.03	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 2?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event