Venezuela · resolved market
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74639053f23b5beca30fe589384f87da4b03a12a15bce09f1565b02564d7f7a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $193,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 0c | 17,957$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 2c | 15,076$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.52 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 0c | 13,170$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,981$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes | 1c | 7,242$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,488$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,799$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e90…4d95backed Yes | 3c | 5,082$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.93 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 3,817$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | -50%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,153$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5273…d975backed Yes | 1c | 2,922$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,617$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe8…f492backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,462$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c1…0193backed Yes | 2c | 2,309$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 14cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 1c | 2,277$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,259$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 2,043$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,993$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 63 | 3.2%2 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde6e…0169backed Yes | 1c | 1,909$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,885$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 1c | 1,780$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc77a…daf8backed Yes | 1c | 1,762$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf47…efc8backed Yes | 1c | 1,606$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,578$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 1,493$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 1c | 1,382$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4c…4793backed Yes | 2c | 1,090$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a18…6ffabacked Yes | 2c | 1,061$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x949a…721cbacked Yes | 1c | 999.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 9cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 1c | 823.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…efbebacked Yes | 2c | 648.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 3c | 641.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked Yes | 3c | 448.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…83dcbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4de…41cdbacked Yes | 7c | 290.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…9d74backed Yes | 10c | 262.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc53…f552backed Yes | 6c | 228.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fab…01e9backed Yes | 7c | 199$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 29?this page
- Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025?Yes won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 10?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 11?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 12?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 13?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 14?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 15?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 16?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 17?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 18?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 19?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 1?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 20?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 21?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 22?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 23?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 24?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 25?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 26?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 27?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 28?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 2?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 30?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 31?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 3?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 4?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 5?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 6?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 7?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 8?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 9?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 24?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 25?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 26?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 27?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 28?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 29?No won
- Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.