TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 4?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$114,214
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$113,091

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,214 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes1c11,745$123 inLost-$122.66468.7%4 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick9cpaid-54.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c8,833$75 inLost-$74.651644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes2c7,277$123 inLost-$122.92200%0 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed Yes3c7,000$209 inLost-$2092030%6 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes1c6,246$43 inLost-$42.61166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-88%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes1c5,083$54 inLost-$53.83310%0 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes2c4,797$76 inLost-$76.34702.9%2 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-81.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe8…f492backed Yes1c4,500$65 inLost-$65446.8%3 W · 41 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-68.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0e09…ab25backed Yes4c2,804$100 inLost-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…357dbacked Yes6c1,706$100 inLost-$1001526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes3c1,560$52 inLost-$51.9280%0 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes2c1,500$36 inLost-$35.83140%0 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes4c1,231$47 inLost-$46.782714.8%4 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-43.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes3c1,199$40 inLost-$402714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes2c1,010$21 inLost-$21.01230%0 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes2c1,000$19 inLost-$19616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes3c983.16$31 inLost-$31.01320%0 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes2c972.8$17 inLost-$16.86238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-80.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes2c959$23 inLost-$22.71260%0 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes3c934.55$26 inLost-$25.9170%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4522…ff26backed Yes6c806.91$51 inLost-$50.511010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-72%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes3c635.7$20 inLost-$20130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5273…d975backed Yes3c599.35$18 inLost-$18460%0 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0772…e8abbacked Yes4c512.82$20 inLost-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes3c495.38$13 inLost-$13.011855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+123.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.