Venezuela · resolved market

Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 10?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66ec6516dd54f2f338525faaccb9f9f499941059d0ef785668e7696dd15bc48d

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 11, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $139,654
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $142,078

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,654 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes	0c	14,819$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.8	70	2.9%2 W · 68 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-81.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	31	0%0 W · 31 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes	1c	9,825$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	6,592$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.13	164	4.9%8 W · 156 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-75.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fe8…f492backed Yes	1c	5,638$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.58	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5273…d975backed Yes	1c	3,032$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.34	46	0%0 W · 46 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes	2c	3,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.19	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x974f…78f7backed Yes	2c	2,783$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	1c	2,499$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.68	32	0%0 W · 32 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	2,308$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.41	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes	1c	1,819$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc68d…ec12backed Yes	3c	1,593$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	18cpaid	-37%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	1c	1,538$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.95	23	0%0 W · 23 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed Yes	1c	1,532$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.63	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc38…5bb2backed Yes	2c	973.04$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	1c	833.95$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	50	14%7 W · 43 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-69%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 10?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event