AI · resolved market
Anthropic CEO arrested?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x035089712a52a87cc30b778965d76c757067e7a2e795e4f2c8e32c76438e1dc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $195,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 8,444$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.98 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…6e02backed Yes | 6c | 4,836$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6037…7e95backed Yes | 5c | 4,346$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7b…9cd5backed Yes | 4c | 3,613$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…0e22backed Yes | 3c | 3,533$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 3,400$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975a…3decbacked Yes | 5c | 3,270$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 3,120$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.6 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…35a7backed Yes | 4c | 3,100$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7788…7983backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf84f…c8f1backed Yes | 5c | 2,808$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf097…b974backed Yes | 4c | 2,679$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e9…d191backed Yes | 4c | 2,639$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 4c | 2,429$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.38 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 2,298$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.51 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd4…c0febacked Yes | 5c | 2,084$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,056$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeefd…49a8backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e4…1660backed Yes | 6c | 1,987$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,729$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41d1…b70ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,695$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 3c | 1,643$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb42…eda0backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,250$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d9…1eb8backed Yes | 5c | 1,087$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8402…d7a0backed Yes | 5c | 1,052$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…9ea3backed Yes | 5c | 1,002$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e5…3263backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…06e1backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd31…1252backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a8d0backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 3c | 884.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 5c | 839.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe811…77e5backed Yes | 2c | 819.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 5c | 700$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 1c | 671.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…4ad1backed Yes | 3c | 660$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 5c | 657.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae52…405cbacked Yes | 5c | 607.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf90a…f197backed Yes | 5c | 566.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…637dbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x589c…c048backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 4c | 497.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 3c | 478$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9c…2aeebacked Yes | 5c | 467.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +83%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…67a1backed Yes | 6c | 448.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…0142backed Yes | 5c | 436.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4f…e283backed Yes | 5c | 429.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…072dbacked Yes | 5c | 408.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed Yes | 5c | 401.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…a6cabacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…ebe8backed Yes | 6c | 350.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 348.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 4c | 342.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…db6abacked Yes | 6c | 338.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…555abacked Yes | 5c | 301$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fab…bdb3backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b9…b138backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f5…8a42backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 297.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…c617backed Yes | 5c | 292.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8a…34fabacked Yes | 5c | 288.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0f…4da1backed Yes | 4c | 258.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…d26abacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3902…43f8backed Yes | 6c | 214.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ca…3340backed Yes | 5c | 206$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf823…3005backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x126b…a516backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…0d21backed Yes | 6c | 189$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.