TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$876,625
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$805,277

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $876,625 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0d5…c665backed No5c135,208$6,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,657.984057.5%23 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed No1c27,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502623.1%6 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+32.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes77c25,695$19,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,918.6438237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked No4c24,244$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.78719.5%17 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes66c23,329$15,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,920.8337740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e3d…8554backed Yes71c18,765$13,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,453.792958.6%17 W · 12 L+5.3wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+20.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x33e2…3a1bbacked No3c15,091$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.135736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No8c14,443$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.5520549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes73c14,419$10,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,829.7851138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No6c14,138$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.525851.7%30 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked No47c10,000$4,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,702.727032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes78c9,804$7,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,127.245836.2%21 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed No0c8,963$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.855930.5%18 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No27c8,367$2,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,242.0435921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed No1c7,524$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.471764.7%11 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.25per pick40cpaid+39%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked No2c7,260$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.389613.5%13 W · 83 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes10c7,153$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,402.355523.6%13 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked No3c6,566$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.7422927.1%62 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x02ae…bad5backed No0c5,860$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.832138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed No36c5,667$2,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.2211334.5%39 W · 74 L-7.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes76c5,505$4,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,313.6220336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6e0…f43ebacked No0c5,157$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked No22c5,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.573020%6 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked No8c5,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4107448.6%36 W · 38 L+9.7wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+156.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes12c4,969$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,369.2613441.8%56 W · 78 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6725…1bf9backed No1c4,933$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.055644.6%25 W · 31 L+8.7wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+109.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8f71…4e83backed No8c4,450$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3561822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3a0…8f36backed No16c4,387$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No20c4,147$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.7436634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c3,938$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.165071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x233b…1f2cbacked No19c3,862$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75010240.2%41 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f69…50a5backed No9c3,606$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3391020%2 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-64.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed Yes61c3,100$1,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2165950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No51c2,735$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.222547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed No30c2,559$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.5114228.2%40 W · 102 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No42c2,502$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.9910737.4%40 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cc1…3957backed No0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes63c2,452$1,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.8721726.7%58 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdbc…e435backed No10c2,409$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+130.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No25c2,222$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.7213738%52 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14b…05e4backed No0c2,126$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked No6c2,005$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.944511.1%5 W · 40 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-67.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd42c…3611backed No15c2,003$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-74.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d02…6255backed Yes76c1,849$1,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.723857.9%22 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb55…782fbacked Yes13c1,805$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.842100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+501.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c1,750$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.54769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No33c1,725$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.2627643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c1…cacebacked Yes16c1,680$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.423100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+202.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed No36c1,647$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.2312341.5%51 W · 72 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x830b…0a93backed Yes55c1,616$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.064459.1%26 W · 18 L+7.9wins+0.18per pick41cpaid+50.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes74c1,600$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.3426429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No6c1,445$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6731241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed No29c1,420$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.339434%32 W · 62 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No4c1,400$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0519428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3437…f8f3backed Yes70c1,350$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.3215953.5%85 W · 74 L+16.6wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No2c1,331$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.119051.1%46 W · 44 L+15.2wins+0.17per pick34cpaid+52.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No11c1,274$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.4512616.7%21 W · 105 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+41%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9010…d06fbacked No7c1,200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.26625.8%17 W · 49 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed Yes70c1,150$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.267350.7%37 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes66c1,145$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.3917839.9%71 W · 107 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x884a…aa34backed No13c1,105$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.765315.1%8 W · 45 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes59c1,000$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.725238.5%20 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.53588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes70c1,000$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29828750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes11c964.48$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.1729653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes52c908.81$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.7110141.6%42 W · 59 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+56.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked No24c900$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.84540%18 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b0f…179abacked No6c883.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503735.1%13 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+90.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc91b…93bdbacked No61c811.73$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.447745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No31c800$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.842311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7818…d185backed No41c795.55$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.576149.2%30 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7690…c04fbacked No3c763.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253540%14 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes14c710$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.9556336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x45bc…978bbacked No6c667$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.61100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes50c665.81$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.8822846.1%105 W · 123 L+22.6wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+17.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No34c663.03$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.6636035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No24c650.82$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.512542.4%53 W · 72 L+19.6wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+44.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xa95d…f8e5backed Yes51c645.65$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.83450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No42c643.57$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.2748923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked No6c600$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.26232.3%20 W · 42 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…b912backed No8c600$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66f3…787cbacked No13c600$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4214…6c68backed No14c589.2$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.466832.4%22 W · 46 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+60.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x946e…1225backed No3c556.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167229.2%21 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked No34c538$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.347644.7%34 W · 42 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9e8…7b51backed No2c530$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.98119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid+32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x680a…0a15backed No9c517.03$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.721275%9 W · 3 L+4.1wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+137.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2425…3dd1backed Yes10c490$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44112139.7%48 W · 73 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x789e…3bb1backed No6c486.09$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.34845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed No20c482.09$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0919641.8%82 W · 114 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…a0d9backed Yes15c479.86$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.321050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0777…4b7fbacked No8c479.38$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.684320.9%9 W · 34 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe65f…9352backed No7c450$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.251330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-58.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8963…de64backed Yes68c449.97$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.897365.8%48 W · 25 L+7.1wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+21%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7447…4657backed No9c445.54$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.11315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-51.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed Yes16c425.46$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.6912054.2%65 W · 55 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbc4…4347backed No39c422.21$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.738337.3%31 W · 52 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdafa…9f46backed No4c416.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.924161%25 W · 16 L+5.9wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+19.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked No6c414.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4515338.6%59 W · 94 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes8c400$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3688626.7%23 W · 63 L+8.7wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+42.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.