Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bf0cbc0938ea215ef8660f2aa37475ae8b82950edc5527185864a8d60b236fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $876,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $805,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $876,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed No | 5c | 135,208$6,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,657.98 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed No | 1c | 27,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 77c | 25,695$19,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,918.64 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 4c | 24,244$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.7 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 66c | 23,329$15,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,920.83 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed Yes | 71c | 18,765$13,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,453.79 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked No | 3c | 15,091$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.13 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 8c | 14,443$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.55 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 73c | 14,419$10,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,829.78 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 6c | 14,138$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.52 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked No | 47c | 10,000$4,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,702.72 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 78c | 9,804$7,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127.24 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 0c | 8,963$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 27c | 8,367$2,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,242.04 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 1c | 7,524$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 40cpaid | +39%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 2c | 7,260$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.38 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 10c | 7,153$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,402.35 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 3c | 6,566$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.74 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 0c | 5,860$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 36c | 5,667$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,065.22 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 76c | 5,505$4,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.62 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…f43ebacked No | 0c | 5,157$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked No | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.57 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 8c | 5,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 12c | 4,969$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,369.26 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed No | 1c | 4,933$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +8.7wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…4e83backed No | 8c | 4,450$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…8f36backed No | 16c | 4,387$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 20c | 4,147$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.74 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 3,938$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked No | 19c | 3,862$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…50a5backed No | 9c | 3,606$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 61c | 3,100$1,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 51c | 2,735$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.2 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 30c | 2,559$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.51 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 42c | 2,502$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.99 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc1…3957backed No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 63c | 2,452$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.87 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbc…e435backed No | 10c | 2,409$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 25c | 2,222$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.72 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…05e4backed No | 0c | 2,126$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked No | 6c | 2,005$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.94 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…3611backed No | 15c | 2,003$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d02…6255backed Yes | 76c | 1,849$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.72 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…782fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,805$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +501.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,750$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 33c | 1,725$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.26 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…cacebacked Yes | 16c | 1,680$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +202.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed No | 36c | 1,647$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.23 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…0a93backed Yes | 55c | 1,616$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.06 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 74c | 1,600$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.34 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 6c | 1,445$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 29c | 1,420$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.33 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 4c | 1,400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 70c | 1,350$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.32 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 2c | 1,331$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 11c | 1,274$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.45 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…d06fbacked No | 7c | 1,200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 70c | 1,150$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.26 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 66c | 1,145$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.39 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…aa34backed No | 13c | 1,105$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.76 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 59c | 1,000$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.72 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 70c | 1,000$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 11c | 964.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.17 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 52c | 908.81$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.71 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 24c | 900$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.8 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…179abacked No | 6c | 883.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 61c | 811.73$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.44 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 31c | 800$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.8 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7818…d185backed No | 41c | 795.55$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.57 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…c04fbacked No | 3c | 763.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 14c | 710$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.95 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…978bbacked No | 6c | 667$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 50c | 665.81$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.88 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 34c | 663.03$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.66 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 24c | 650.82$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa95d…f8e5backed Yes | 51c | 645.65$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 42c | 643.57$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.27 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked No | 6c | 600$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed No | 8c | 600$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…787cbacked No | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…6c68backed No | 14c | 589.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed No | 3c | 556.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 34c | 538$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.34 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e8…7b51backed No | 2c | 530$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed No | 9c | 517.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +137.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 10c | 490$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3bb1backed No | 6c | 486.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 20c | 482.09$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.09 | 196 | 41.8%82 W · 114 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…a0d9backed Yes | 15c | 479.86$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0777…4b7fbacked No | 8c | 479.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…9352backed No | 7c | 450$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8963…de64backed Yes | 68c | 449.97$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.89 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…4657backed No | 9c | 445.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 16c | 425.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.69 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…4347backed No | 39c | 422.21$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.73 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafa…9f46backed No | 4c | 416.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 6c | 414.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.