Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a27ddbd2965784c01ef0a53d440a9cfc08e815f63f0d923ed8734af36872add
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,492,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,352,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,492,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 12c | 73,553$8,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,805.94 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad8…41b6backed Yes | 1c | 35,969$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Yes | 3c | 30,557$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.4 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 5c | 28,814$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.79 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 28,010$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.92 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 10c | 22,180$2,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,138.67 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 4c | 20,549$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.28 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…3d56backed Yes | 1c | 18,619$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +244.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 5c | 17,219$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.86 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 8c | 16,299$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.83 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf04a…2851backed Yes | 1c | 15,651$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…a37cbacked Yes | 10c | 15,423$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…51ffbacked Yes | 7c | 14,293$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +247.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 11c | 12,323$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.58 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 0c | 12,306$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 5c | 11,561$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.3 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 13c | 11,538$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.99 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9926…5d2cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,410$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd6…60c2backed Yes | 5c | 11,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 10,872$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 6c | 10,788$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.17 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5019…f8b7backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.34 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…1ccfbacked Yes | 10c | 9,800$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 1c | 9,775$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 18c | 9,066$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.23 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 1c | 9,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d3…6e63backed Yes | 2c | 8,343$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3c…110bbacked Yes | 5c | 8,186$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.3 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…affebacked Yes | 0c | 8,009$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 11c | 7,888$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.63 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…4c5abacked Yes | 10c | 6,895$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 10c | 6,895$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.14 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 4c | 6,889$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.59 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 79c | 6,469$5,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.49 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 1c | 6,186$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed11…10bebacked Yes | 6c | 5,666$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.94 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 5,650$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 1c | 5,597$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 11c | 5,439$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 8c | 5,135$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.22 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…01debacked Yes | 2c | 5,059$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfae…9dedbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…6c68backed Yes | 11c | 4,877$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.55 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 12c | 4,817$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.03 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…e40bbacked Yes | 8c | 4,779$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 2c | 4,555$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 1c | 4,550$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 5c | 4,481$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.07 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,469$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 17c | 4,430$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.75 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bc…f6f3backed Yes | 2c | 4,270$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 18c | 4,257$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 14c | 4,242$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.07 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9514…9017backed Yes | 2c | 4,200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 4c | 4,145$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…70b0backed Yes | 13c | 4,039$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.53 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 8c | 4,029$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.45 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x586b…646cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +293.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes | 10c | 3,952$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 3,825$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.33 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes | 18c | 3,808$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.38 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…26e1backed Yes | 1c | 3,783$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 3,643$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.54 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 3c | 3,488$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 4c | 3,482$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.59 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed No | 79c | 3,392$2,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.33 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 1c | 3,336$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c8…c328backed Yes | 1c | 3,197$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +194.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcb…0cebbacked Yes | 1c | 3,033$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 7c | 3,000$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +182.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed Yes | 10c | 2,923$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…724cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,800$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…50a5backed Yes | 18c | 2,778$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed Yes | 1c | 2,777$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 8c | 2,760$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.75 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 3c | 2,714$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c26…a23cbacked Yes | 24c | 2,706$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Yes | 24c | 2,576$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.77 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd0…c562backed Yes | 9c | 2,500$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 24cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 2,455$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.14 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes | 2c | 2,451$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…9a1dbacked Yes | 14c | 2,428$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 1c | 2,326$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed Yes | 2c | 2,293$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +154%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…7104backed Yes | 11c | 2,288$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…cabcbacked Yes | 10c | 2,230$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +194%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 6c | 2,211$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.78 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 1c | 2,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,171$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.78 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes | 2c | 2,093$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed Yes | 9c | 2,081$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.72 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 2,051$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked Yes | 13c | 2,000$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.62 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…19a9backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +590.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…389dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 22c | 1,952$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.7 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?this page
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.