Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x339727bd072a1756e1ff56b4512702e28ed0e30818fc28e0c9e39fafea56a578
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,474,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,440,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,474,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 3c | 61,755$1,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,818.04 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 8c | 51,754$4,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,293.87 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…70b0backed Yes | 2c | 45,962$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.82 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bc…f6f3backed Yes | 7c | 39,825$2,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,756.16 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 7c | 34,364$2,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,516.43 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfc…91b6backed Yes | 6c | 30,099$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -79%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 9c | 27,913$2,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,445.24 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 6c | 25,913$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.23 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 3c | 23,179$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 8c | 19,676$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.67 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 5c | 18,390$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.23 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 7c | 16,013$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.8 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b3…7552backed Yes | 6c | 15,414$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.81 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 12cpaid | +484.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 14c | 15,294$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.06 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 2c | 15,129$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.86 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 4c | 14,290$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.72 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 1c | 13,945$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.03 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc266…2f2fbacked Yes | 9c | 11,519$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.67 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4e…2e3ebacked Yes | 19c | 10,529$1,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -87%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 3c | 9,758$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.08 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 1c | 9,750$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 9c | 9,592$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.36 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd005…f2c5backed Yes | 6c | 8,074$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +493.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 13c | 7,826$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.79 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…f295backed Yes | 7c | 7,766$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.1 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b63…bdd3backed Yes | 1c | 6,622$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 6c | 6,048$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.5 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 5,997$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.44 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 5c | 5,827$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.35 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 5,600$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.34 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 5,463$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.66 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.94 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.21 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 13c | 5,000$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a9…7311backed Yes | 8c | 4,245$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93af…94d7backed Yes | 2c | 4,067$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…9e4abacked Yes | 5c | 4,005$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 15c | 4,000$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.99 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 8c | 3,825$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 7c | 3,820$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…cabcbacked Yes | 6c | 3,810$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.73 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +194%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72de…a5edbacked Yes | 6c | 3,690$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.01 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…646cbacked Yes | 16c | 3,688$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 3,492$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.18 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9809…ae41backed Yes | 4c | 3,444$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed Yes | 9c | 3,310$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.52 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed2…7d51backed Yes | 18c | 3,249$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…1083backed Yes | 14c | 3,200$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.4 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 3,197$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.22 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 6c | 3,164$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.55 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 8c | 3,024$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d1…c8a4backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 1c | 2,969$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed Yes | 7c | 2,867$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.77 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 5c | 2,790$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed Yes | 2c | 2,778$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +154%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 3c | 2,755$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…1fb6backed Yes | 9c | 2,715$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 10c | 2,690$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.19 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,650$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1f…7828backed Yes | 6c | 2,645$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.2 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 8c | 2,561$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.65 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 10c | 2,539$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.62 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3532…663abacked Yes | 5c | 2,500$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…0690backed Yes | 7c | 2,491$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.52 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…ed20backed Yes | 20c | 2,445$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.57 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 6c | 2,291$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.63 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c27…dee0backed Yes | 11c | 2,280$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725a…5cafbacked Yes | 5c | 2,200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 3c | 2,174$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa10b…8ec6backed Yes | 5c | 2,084$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 23cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…eecbbacked Yes | 12c | 2,003$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +7.0wins | +0.37per pick | 16cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…893ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,900$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.54 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 10c | 1,830$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…6c68backed Yes | 9c | 1,802$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.09 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdc…1348backed Yes | 8c | 1,761$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 6c | 1,733$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf406…236ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,718$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d24…fe4dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,699$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 1c | 1,624$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…0a93backed Yes | 9c | 1,602$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.92 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes | 6c | 1,600$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,592$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 8c | 1,540$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 6c | 1,482$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 3c | 1,457$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bb…acb1backed Yes | 2c | 1,425$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 7c | 1,400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…6e31backed Yes | 11c | 1,387$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.52 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +187.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82c9…36fcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,377$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.03 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 3c | 1,376$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25a6…0790backed Yes | 3c | 1,369$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65da…8f70backed Yes | 15c | 1,359$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e7…9561backed Yes | 8c | 1,310$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 4c | 1,284$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?this page
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.