Middle East · resolved market
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26ca74d41edc9e3a6643698fbe8eae446377e4579d2f55f505da4ff6a1cf0f66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,257,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,993,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,257,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 514 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb35…b137backed Yes | 1c | 274,380$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 3c | 62,554$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,131.62 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 11c | 38,417$4,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,083.2 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed Yes | 3c | 34,251$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.76 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 5c | 34,159$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,736.41 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes | 3c | 30,431$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.53 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 27,500$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…79ccbacked Yes | 4c | 27,319$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +876.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0143…239abacked Yes | 4c | 26,367$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 4c | 25,075$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.75 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 6c | 22,923$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.54 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 7c | 21,563$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.4 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892b…59c6backed Yes | 4c | 21,040$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 19c | 18,014$3,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,372.25 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 9c | 17,629$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.99 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 17c | 15,660$2,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,717.18 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 24c | 15,484$3,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,728.13 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 3c | 14,744$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 5c | 13,936$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…133cbacked Yes | 6c | 12,863$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 12,063$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 5c | 11,402$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.78 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 9c | 11,000$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…2849backed Yes | 5c | 10,976$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 41cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c26…a23cbacked Yes | 19c | 10,508$2,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,011.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…ead3backed Yes | 5c | 10,028$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 8,685$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.94 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 8c | 8,600$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x138f…657ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,528$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a8…60c5backed Yes | 14c | 8,378$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…c676backed Yes | 1c | 8,345$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 69c | 7,923$5,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,461.01 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb076…07d3backed Yes | 1c | 7,566$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…27d2backed Yes | 5c | 7,500$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 7,382$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.48 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 12c | 7,312$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.91 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 3c | 7,147$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.22 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 3c | 6,890$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.27 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 73c | 6,793$4,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,858.91 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 79c | 6,500$5,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.99 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…ec2fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,332$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x492f…8144backed Yes | 4c | 6,171$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Yes | 2c | 6,117$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +443.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Yes | 5c | 6,000$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 2c | 5,974$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…aac8backed Yes | 5c | 5,831$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.66 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +6.4wins | +0.38per pick | 27cpaid | +110%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 3c | 5,794$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.61 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…a286backed Yes | 4c | 5,790$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 5c | 5,754$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.37 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 4c | 5,745$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.1 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 4c | 5,658$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 5c | 5,516$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 14c | 5,409$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.57 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 78c | 5,299$4,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.53 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,220$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.41 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 5c | 4,785$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.23 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fac…ee47backed Yes | 4c | 4,677$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…1ccfbacked Yes | 18c | 4,600$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ce…0716backed Yes | 4c | 4,496$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…05e4backed Yes | 1c | 4,492$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…89f1backed Yes | 5c | 4,147$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…50a5backed Yes | 36c | 3,990$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad3a…9a90backed Yes | 4c | 3,974$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 3,766$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 3,701$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.38 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x990f…7f96backed Yes | 5c | 3,666$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 5c | 3,649$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.08 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 37c | 3,546$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.93 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Yes | 34c | 3,408$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.75 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 10c | 3,400$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.67 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fb…441bbacked Yes | 11c | 3,400$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 2c | 3,395$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 3c | 3,380$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 9c | 3,355$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.4 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 12c | 3,333$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…2c4cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,295$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…3683backed Yes | 5c | 3,247$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.95 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +656.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 14c | 3,239$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.94 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…9aa0backed Yes | 32c | 3,135$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.81 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…2673backed Yes | 3c | 3,124$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.37per pick | 32cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 3c | 3,089$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…e410backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 2c | 2,987$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed Yes | 3c | 2,951$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.83 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…1fb6backed Yes | 17c | 2,941$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…51ffbacked Yes | 17c | 2,941$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +247.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…6c68backed Yes | 22c | 2,839$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.25 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…8eb4backed Yes | 2c | 2,824$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked Yes | 36c | 2,783$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.71 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b4…03bcbacked Yes | 4c | 2,759$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 65c | 2,652$1,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.93 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 9c | 2,640$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.5 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…7249backed Yes | 2c | 2,638$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 68c | 2,583$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.63 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,553$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…8527backed Yes | 13c | 2,535$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f8…dbbcbacked Yes | 33c | 2,527$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b5…8378backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +279.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?this page
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?No won
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.