Commodities · resolved market
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa592b90f0ef30b33674d773ac1618a84c7170a97f92df7e5cf507317ad5113a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,203,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,792,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,203,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 2c | 250,000$4,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,081.73 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 1c | 194,892$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.7 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 5c | 116,193$5,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,271.32 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 14c | 44,500$6,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,254.98 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 32,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 7c | 30,000$1,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960.92 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 3c | 26,740$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.19 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…a286backed Yes | 1c | 21,368$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.86 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 8c | 19,277$1,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.44 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…d6e2backed Yes | 25c | 17,187$4,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,318.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 0c | 16,589$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 13,574$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.73 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 76c | 13,410$10,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,244.61 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 2c | 12,660$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.21 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 10c | 12,583$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.04 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898a…f5a6backed Yes | 1c | 12,004$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…9048backed Yes | 0c | 10,423$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 8c | 10,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 119 | 21%25 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…74bcbacked No | 75c | 10,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…b30ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,594$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes | 7c | 8,533$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 4c | 8,500$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 4c | 8,450$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.35 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 7c | 7,348$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.36 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…6603backed No | 78c | 6,465$5,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.48 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 15c | 5,962$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.34 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 5,700$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 76c | 4,993$3,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.33 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6151backed Yes | 3c | 4,792$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed Yes | 2c | 3,994$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +383.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…2f60backed No | 77c | 3,867$2,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.62 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 3,861$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 10c | 3,711$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 21c | 3,657$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.19 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 13c | 3,500$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 17c | 3,396$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.44 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 75c | 3,012$2,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.05 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 14c | 2,905$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.02 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…1077backed No | 80c | 2,715$2,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.19 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.5wins | -0.41per pick | 50cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…1733backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 76c | 2,487$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.88 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 25c | 2,444$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.04 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dd…f987backed Yes | 2c | 2,100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 7c | 2,069$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.81 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ab…88ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,830$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes | 21c | 1,530$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…0bd9backed Yes | 17c | 1,449$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 14c | 1,439$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.46 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…85d1backed Yes | 1c | 1,394$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd2…e50ebacked No | 73c | 1,372$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked Yes | 13c | 1,348$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,280$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…e47fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,219$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…142bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,017$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…5a2fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 78c | 999.99$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 19c | 999.98$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 8c | 937.63$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 75c | 920.07$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.07 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…82abbacked Yes | 11c | 849.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.84 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6934…0aa7backed Yes | 3c | 755.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 750$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…c838backed Yes | 1c | 719.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeffe…5efabacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c5…d5d3backed No | 77c | 700$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed No | 79c | 694.78$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.95 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +6.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…6cc3backed Yes | 3c | 689.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed Yes | 14c | 628.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.34 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b4…2d43backed Yes | 7c | 589.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…d335backed Yes | 3c | 571.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 2c | 540.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0143…239abacked Yes | 19c | 526.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…d6a2backed Yes | 8c | 517.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 7c | 505$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +347.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…1364backed No | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 14c | 499.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 33c | 499.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f3…5067backed Yes | 2c | 470.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe96d…a747backed Yes | 10c | 470.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124f…0deabacked Yes | 14c | 469.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 75c | 466.93$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.73 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed16…51e3backed Yes | 11c | 465.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 30c | 434.34$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.23 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2b…a201backed Yes | 22c | 430.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked No | 78c | 419.75$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.15 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…db70backed No | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 19c | 399.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…136bbacked No | 70c | 393.49$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.97 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed Yes | 11c | 370$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fc…7c00backed No | 75c | 346.67$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…5b92backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 75c | 303.54$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 10c | 302.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.