Middle East · resolved market
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84bb09091cb94fd4cbb79be8c8a8573a0bb433f3eb99fb8d95b56d29c46d7ab9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $404,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $364,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $404,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb524…9eb7backed No | 0c | 50,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…ac0bbacked No | 0c | 20,344$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +182.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1c…02bbbacked No | 0c | 20,264$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 24c | 10,087$2,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,417.31 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed No | 1c | 10,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61e2…4958backed No | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…4387backed No | 0c | 8,790$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 56c | 5,960$3,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,615.57 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed No | 1c | 5,600$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…c182backed No | 12c | 4,776$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.43 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 40c | 4,756$1,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,867.73 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked Yes | 79c | 4,717$3,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.57 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…5b73backed Yes | 49c | 4,611$2,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,358.64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked No | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked No | 20c | 3,998$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.34 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 63c | 3,772$2,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.72 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed No | 0c | 3,706$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 55c | 3,635$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990.38 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 19c | 3,528$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.53 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 54c | 3,210$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.61 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 71c | 2,848$2,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,022.37 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed No | 21c | 2,767$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.07 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 69c | 2,670$1,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.23 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 2,623$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.04 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 7c | 2,587$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.19 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 4c | 2,042$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 2,004$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.86 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…3ceabacked Yes | 70c | 1,825$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.44 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked Yes | 54c | 1,700$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -11.4wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 43c | 1,700$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 38c | 1,677$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.91 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2598…40a3backed No | 49c | 1,596$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 72c | 1,555$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.03 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 49c | 1,539$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.53 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 59c | 1,485$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.3 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 1,461$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.69 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 37c | 1,446$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.13 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes | 80c | 1,106$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.15 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked No | 29c | 1,095$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.68 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 21c | 1,059$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.9 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 34c | 1,049$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.3 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 23c | 1,010$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.3 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…01f5backed No | 9c | 1,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 54c | 999.98$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 999.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 40c | 913.44$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 41c | 839.33$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.06 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed No | 61c | 816.57$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.02 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 63c | 705.34$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.88 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…4883backed Yes | 59c | 687.59$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.59 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 79c | 685.92$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.92 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 35c | 685.71$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 68c | 664.98$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.94 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…4657backed No | 24c | 640.65$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.93 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…d034backed Yes | 25c | 609.23$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.23 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 23c | 600$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 58c | 600$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 53c | 576.99$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.86 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 22c | 508.11$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.33 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +13.5wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 54c | 499.99$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.76 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed No | 64c | 466.58$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29da…539fbacked No | 65c | 458.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…d127backed No | 29c | 450$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +412.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…787cbacked No | 16c | 450$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b3…d24cbacked Yes | 41c | 435$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.55 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 41c | 425.51$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.46 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked No | 24c | 420$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…d9cebacked Yes | 62c | 410.87$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.87 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…d950backed No | 30c | 408.33$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588a…83d6backed No | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 40c | 374$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.54 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 48c | 366.09$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.06 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed Yes | 65c | 359.45$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.3 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507b…0742backed Yes | 69c | 350$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed No | 32c | 350$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes | 64c | 349.62$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.67 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 16c | 317.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd0…9192backed No | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 9c | 314.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 23c | 306.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…d719backed Yes | 49c | 301.49$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.75 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed No | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…f6b9backed No | 59c | 297$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 47c | 268.27$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.45 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 61c | 260.36$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.04 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked No | 27c | 260$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked Yes | 22c | 257.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.29 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 49c | 250.09$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.84 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 62c | 242.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.37 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…8ad6backed Yes | 52c | 234.16$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.76 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 23c | 228.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.76 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…181dbacked No | 70c | 213.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed Yes | 23c | 200.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.21 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…0a93backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdce8…8663backed Yes | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…3fbfbacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 27cpaid | +183.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked No | 55c | 200$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?this page
- Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.