TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$165,490
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$176,793

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,490 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8f1…fee6backed No1c18,045$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.85330%0 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97cb…c910backed No8c9,681$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7707030%21 W · 49 L+10.8wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+250.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No65c7,612$4,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,957.627643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82c9…36fcbacked Yes78c6,047$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.114332.6%14 W · 29 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa65c…7997backed Yes68c5,768$3,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,853.964450%22 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed No20c4,259$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.6411527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked No10c3,600$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.1216526.1%43 W · 122 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41e2…3ad5backed No0c3,532$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.17922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+104.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b67…b814backed Yes43c3,420$1,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,966.273548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+117.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd20b…3a20backed Yes51c2,934$1,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,451.674845.8%22 W · 26 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+41.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x378a…a638backed No11c2,235$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.53718.9%7 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes68c2,004$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.5519739.1%77 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes43c1,671$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.6816831%52 W · 116 L-0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2598…40a3backed No47c1,602$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7481145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No32c1,593$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.0735921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No47c1,500$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70942738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4042…ddfcbacked No16c1,494$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2392317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid+97.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No42c1,472$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.5321726.7%58 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No32c1,272$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.0836634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad66…4eeebacked No16c1,253$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+588.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4c…d6a2backed No12c1,060$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.434040%16 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb980…73b0backed Yes64c1,049$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.035952.5%31 W · 28 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea30…f2a9backed Yes53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.872673.1%19 W · 7 L+6.1wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+61.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed No77c955$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.2831344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No26c773.41$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.3529653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked Yes72c763.25$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.2310928.4%31 W · 78 L-15.2wins-0.14per pick42cpaid+12.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x4b9c…c182backed Yes52c730.83$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.093534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa429…368abacked Yes72c700$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1995646.4%26 W · 30 L-11.4wins-0.20per pick67cpaid-34.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes44c690$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.1812638.1%48 W · 78 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x708d…ea78backed Yes36c687.9$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.268144.4%36 W · 45 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b62…5203backed Yes63c652.47$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.655731.6%18 W · 39 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes46c626.78$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.1458927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No14c555$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.76141%25 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed No58c489$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.5113441.8%56 W · 78 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ad6…5e1cbacked Yes47c457.86$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.265950.8%30 W · 29 L+9.0wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+39.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x33e2…3a1bbacked No62c440.1$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.445736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2712…eb71backed No14c430.76$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605540%22 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes26c418.53$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.0312542.4%53 W · 72 L+19.6wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+44.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No14c410$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.417129.2%50 W · 121 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d02…6255backed Yes77c408.88$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.123857.9%22 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No71c388$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.2526429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae78…acafbacked Yes27c372.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.41955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+71.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes54c370$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.4611037.3%41 W · 69 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c94…2e06backed Yes44c350$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.25962.7%37 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed No16c350$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid+48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No49c342.09$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.5434432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No57c336.4$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.417530.9%54 W · 121 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc229…b293backed No15c331.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed No32c313.27$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7912341.5%51 W · 72 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90cf…2d2cbacked Yes37c310.81$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.811457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+29.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d97…d127backed No8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+412.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes66c282.7$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.7236626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes58c275.99$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.3518135.9%65 W · 116 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes55c273.36$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.363141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No21c264.39$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0551138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9916…54dcbacked Yes38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.163444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x058f…4883backed Yes78c255.89$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.463351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8199…bb6dbacked Yes63c251$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.862356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed No31c229.3$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.085238.5%20 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No60c225.18$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8426756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd064…c4d1backed Yes45c209.99$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.596753.7%36 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes58c205$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.1522547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No24c200.93$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.331,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50d3…bad4backed Yes69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624037.5%15 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb5…8ab9backed No15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302642.3%11 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeaf1…3fbfbacked Yes43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick27cpaid+183.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd242…e84dbacked No69c200$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1381145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c10…26eabacked Yes58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick50cpaid-53.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5482…d034backed Yes26c192.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.311471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+50.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcacc…2eacbacked No8c187.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes59c185.96$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9512037.5%45 W · 75 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed No27c183.83$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.11233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5835…9404backed No37c180.71$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.283435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.1wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-47.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x35e3…9188backed Yes73c153.13$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3911633.6%39 W · 77 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes79c151.64$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1736035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x023d…3431backed No38c150$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572035%7 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f40…a69cbacked No31c146.04$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.27955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed Yes79c137$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.361553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+67%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No29c135.87$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.258739.1%34 W · 53 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No43c135.13$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.439621%83 W · 313 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x2af1…6b27backed Yes78c132$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.743256.3%18 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x091f…9dffbacked Yes25c120$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+44.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes61c119.28$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.559051.1%46 W · 44 L+15.2wins+0.17per pick34cpaid+52.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed No65c119.14$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.485836.2%21 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd53e…0b73backed Yes70c112.55$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.269231.5%29 W · 63 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-39.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x369c…eab1backed No55c107.49$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.056129.5%18 W · 43 L-8.3wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-34%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9f4b…f9bfbacked Yes47c106.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.49560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+45.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x34a9…4cfdbacked No27c100.05$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.086942%29 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9898…0a7dbacked No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132528%7 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3333…6d86backed Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685759.6%34 W · 23 L+7.4wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa344…8141backed Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3011850%59 W · 59 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4213348.1%64 W · 69 L+20.7wins+0.16per pick33cpaid+143.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed Yes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9506…c548backed No23c93.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.72317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-47.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e4f…a849backed No27c81.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.764339.5%17 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-36.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x410f…57febacked Yes25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a8…7d37backed No26c79.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3211854.2%64 W · 54 L+9.7wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x490e…123abacked Yes26c78.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.441225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-43.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6418…730cbacked Yes72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.445145.1%23 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+75.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4907…cdc2backed No59c68.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-34%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.