MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x787c9d45db285496b3fe624762246062aa765c435dd6691f88a8c5dd14f7aced
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 934.09$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.79 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 570.8$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.19 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 247.78$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.45 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 9c | 182.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 111.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 111.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.97 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…e660backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 77.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 74.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…ccc6backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 58.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d99…7daabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 57.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 49.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 47.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 43.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cincinnati Reds | 29c | 43.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 39.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 23.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 23.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 20.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 16.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.