MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcac7149c612cc7674a6e2d5fb37a97167c251cc274a9d58bc7cd2daf106c0544
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44b6…672abacked Under | 54c | 7,446$4,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,018.36 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fea1backed Over | 46c | 4,238$1,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,288.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 46c | 1,636$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.3 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 43c | 1,425$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.43 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 1,317$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.59 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 1,233$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.75 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 44c | 1,099$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.41 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 59c | 1,037$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.53 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 955.19$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.29 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 46c | 879$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.66 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…12ddbacked Over | 62c | 797.76$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.55 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 47c | 716.47$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.73 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b36…56cebacked Over | 77c | 636.54$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 625.83$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.62 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 10c | 588.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 43c | 540.6$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.48 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 57c | 442.38$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.16 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 32c | 333.27$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.18 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 27c | 330.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 78c | 318.98$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 307.5$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.47 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 47c | 273.98$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.21 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 43c | 202.14$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.22 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e9…d331backed Under | 57c | 194.84$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.06 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 56c | 177.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.83 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 44c | 164.73$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 46c | 149.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 43c | 146.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.31 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 36c | 144.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 56c | 139.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 46c | 132.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 54c | 127.23$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 56c | 125.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 46c | 123.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Over | 43c | 112.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 45c | 103.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 42c | 103.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Under | 55c | 100.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 59c | 95.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 45c | 91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 57c | 85.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 46c | 76.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 66.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Over | 47c | 66.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 45c | 65.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 48c | 64.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8702…6304backed Over | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Over | 43c | 56.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 43c | 56.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 45c | 55.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 51.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 48.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 46c | 48.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Under | 57c | 44.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Over | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 45c | 43.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 54c | 38.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 78c | 38.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 44c | 38.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Under | 57c | 36.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Over | 43c | 35.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 47c | 33.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a4…e44abacked Over | 43c | 33.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 54c | 31.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea9…0924backed Under | 55c | 31.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Under | 55c | 28.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 43c | 27.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Under | 54c | 26.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 41c | 26.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Under | 58c | 25.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…348ebacked Under | 53c | 19.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 59c | 18.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.