MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d9c64ec17f6f230a8d0ec76289e4900ac598ba9283512d5cbb6282e3acfdfad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Kansas City Royals, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 8,383$5,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,082.15 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Kansas City Royals | 37c | 6,000$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Kansas City Royals | 14c | 1,513$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.43 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 1,017$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.51 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…672abacked Kansas City Royals | 38c | 899.17$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.68 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Kansas City Royals | 49c | 597.06$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.77 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 499.97$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 460$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 405.39$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.05 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 397.48$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.09 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 346$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.48 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 310.32$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.82 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Kansas City Royals | 37c | 301.65$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.61 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Baltimore Orioles | 77c | 252.11$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 206.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Kansas City Royals | 17c | 198.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 177.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 80c | 170.25$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 15c | 156.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 148.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 140.57$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 96.24$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 91.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Kansas City Royals | 48c | 87.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 86.59$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 60.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Kansas City Royals | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 48.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 40.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 39.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 38.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kansas City Royals | 37c | 37.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0823…8803backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 26.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.