MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c8a1273fdcbabaa138a3289fbdb84a3a30d843e019623709b1d805a60a5c0be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 43c | 1,206$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.38 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 57c | 821.47$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.23 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Under | 61c | 712.75$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.91 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 23c | 567.39$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.09 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 17c | 299$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 57c | 205.09$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.19 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 159.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 40c | 150$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 39c | 145$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 58c | 138.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 39c | 92.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 71c | 87.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Under | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Under | 60c | 80.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 36c | 78.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 40c | 74.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 39c | 72.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Under | 61c | 65.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 64c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 59c | 61.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 57c | 51.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 37c | 48.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…57a9backed Over | 41c | 47.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 33c | 38.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Under | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 42c | 30.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 57c | 28.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 57c | 26.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 43c | 25.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Under | 58c | 25.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 61c | 24.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Under | 60c | 22.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 61c | 22.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 60c | 17.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona DiamondbacksChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.