TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,833
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,328

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,833 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4133…5e70backed No60c5,131$3,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,046.8475142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc64c…e605backed Yes41c2,420$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.25742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+42.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ab7…d03cbacked Yes18c1,500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19cd…997abacked Yes66c1,469$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Yes39c1,344$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.7311356.6%64 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe87…6fc0backed No70c1,144$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.273756.8%21 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes11c1,137$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.511,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes66c1,106$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.91,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes17c1,093$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.783063.3%19 W · 11 L+6.8wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+50.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes17c999.97$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.995151%26 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d55…f50cbacked Yes40c989.03$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.851338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yes3c988.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9814315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No30c964.03$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.3740744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes52c678.02$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.0233737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No44c635.79$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.152,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3be…c163backed Yes67c604.55$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.491136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick60cpaid-45.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b71…4e79backed Yes28c586.62$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.63825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes18c574.83$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4714447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Yes27c548.93$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.214030%12 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a44…8985backed Yes18c501.81$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.33728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7695…9cedbacked Yes77c496.95$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.6520%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes37c472.09$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.451838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed No39c424.24$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.7964043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef20…c46abacked No66c391.82$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.152245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick56cpaid+11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Yes73c389.94$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.65933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed Yes20c357$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb74…23ccbacked Yes34c341.25$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No26c298.37$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.3149143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c7a…7625backed Yes52c291.36$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.511070%7 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes46c274.48$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.085064%32 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7203…795abacked No72c272.88$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.256564.6%42 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea4c…0e79backed Yes72c272.03$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes41c263.45$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.522040%8 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc329…0b75backed Yes61c257.87$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.53450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5529…86d2backed Yes40c241$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No71c240.33$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.333,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No71c239.94$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9510549.5%52 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d6…10fdbacked Yes67c231.79$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb3…5fe5backed Yes72c226.18$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.13366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Yes15c217.29$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3312832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ac1…3afebacked Yes5c210$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1af…e611backed Yes6c205.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d0…ec9abacked Yes18c179.6$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.331526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab7e…b5d1backed Yes76c178.89$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.77650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fce…c02abacked Yes19c175$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.25650%3 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+251.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Yes56c162.77$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.499354.8%51 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd1c…44fbbacked Yes59c160$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.61560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Yes36c151.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.411723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.8wins-0.28per pick52cpaid-65.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed No53c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7020645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6779…eed9backed Yes26c143.36$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa38e…8917backed No69c141.61$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.474759.6%28 W · 19 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked No70c140.27$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.085276.9%40 W · 12 L+13.0wins+0.25per pick52cpaid+72%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x9b78…473dbacked No71c139.08$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.855358.5%31 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd93…56c0backed No71c138.38$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.135457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d96…39acbacked Yes10c137.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No74c137.12$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6422669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc551…fa51backed No72c136.58$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.276264.5%40 W · 22 L+7.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+23.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc482…b505backed Yes75c128.01$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.013956.4%22 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-5.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x138e…3305backed Yes70c112.23$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.56366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfece…ef64backed Yes18c105.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.023826.3%10 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc112…d1efbacked Yes18c105.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.023228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6190…5d90backed Yes53c103.23$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.71955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes11c103.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0943532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes27c101.36$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3748141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabe0…5adbbacked Yes53c100.85$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3636…ab7cbacked Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Yes25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x206d…7c44backed Yes54c99.31$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215f…c9f1backed Yes39c98.81$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffff…4413backed Yes27c95.79$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3112141.3%50 W · 71 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes20c95.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.045440.7%22 W · 32 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-19.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes19c95.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0813555.6%75 W · 60 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fca…819abacked Yes22c86.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.062035%7 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ee6…f017backed Yes19c85.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1660%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x56de…bc32backed Yes60c83.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.411258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd85a…1d03backed Yes61c80.05$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.83683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a30…e0c1backed Yes67c79.4$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Yes60c79.06$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.431656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081f…d5c0backed Yes33c72.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes63c72.17$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4720845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd20…069cbacked Yes70c70.14$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7670…6522backed Yes71c69.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes44c64.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4123842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Yes48c60.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa56d…3053backed Yes44c60.01$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked No77c59.32$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.496850%34 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…61f0backed Yes37c58.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6730%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26af…fdfbbacked Yes48c56.79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc18…9b6ebacked No36c53.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.171258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x934e…f045backed Yes47c50.72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.64580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+57.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Yes37c50.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.732343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1262…2fc9backed No75c50.22$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.553063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+64.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes26c43.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2122245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x065b…547fbacked Yes48c40.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.38862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+44.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.814756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe72a…532fbacked Yes31c39.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda1c…197dbacked No62c39.08$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.951040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd23d…5d2dbacked Yes77c38.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9409…5b36backed Yes32c38.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.18742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed No52c37.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1817247.1%81 W · 91 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.