Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-04-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a21d3737728d0d665c9d6a7eb5ec22e7f256c4699fbe52f0c1a3d9ff61e5d2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 12c | 13,396$1,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,770.07 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 9c | 8,466$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.79 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f9…0aebbacked Yes | 12c | 4,360$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,837.14 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f84…e4b4backed Yes | 12c | 4,297$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,795.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +756%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 45c | 4,040$1,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,813.7 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x794f…3906backed Yes | 10c | 3,416$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,083.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +930%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 7c | 2,805$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,601.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +587.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 7c | 2,687$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,496.55 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18a…7c09backed Yes | 14c | 2,432$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,091.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +193.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…dedebacked Yes | 13c | 1,746$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,519.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +172.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0f…e25fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,509$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 31cpaid | +265.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 13c | 1,345$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.1 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,056$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.62 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed No | 14c | 1,044$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 20c | 994.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 12c | 891.86$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.03 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…e3cfbacked Yes | 12c | 847.6$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +271.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…643cbacked Yes | 7c | 767.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Yes | 80c | 743.44$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.81 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f7…c4e4backed Yes | 12c | 705.45$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 24c | 590.85$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.58 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 7c | 536$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.04 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d55…f50cbacked Yes | 11c | 530.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.06 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Yes | 80c | 426.57$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…656dbacked Yes | 13c | 399.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 76c | 378.31$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 75c | 363.89$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.56 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed No | 7c | 361.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 13c | 358.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.86 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 11c | 294.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.67 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 10c | 249.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.98 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 70c | 242.95$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 44c | 237.53$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.04 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 9c | 236.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.85 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 28c | 225.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…c46abacked Yes | 48c | 193.7$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.69 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd027…cc86backed Yes | 12c | 190.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 49c | 188.44$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.61 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…4413backed No | 71c | 183.45$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.84 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…8b89backed Yes | 14c | 182.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 27cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Yes | 14c | 167.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.97 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 24c | 166.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.01 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 69c | 156.63$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 12c | 155.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.89 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 12c | 155.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.68 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99b5…8d41backed Yes | 14c | 147.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Yes | 68c | 144.38$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…ab76backed No | 13c | 144.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 16c | 127.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.05 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 38c | 123.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.18 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Yes | 69c | 123.43$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba2d…2f32backed No | 14c | 120.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 14c | 111.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 13c | 110.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 14c | 101.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.39 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Yes | 49c | 96.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Yes | 78c | 96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked Yes | 67c | 91.74$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed Yes | 13c | 80.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 80c | 51.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +12.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-04-18?this page
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?No won
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.