MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a3cca1131477b634bd5af389f259db2e1b72edb3ad2a341f44c76a8a38170c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 23c | 956.62$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.27 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 9c | 928.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 798.17$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.39 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 77c | 698.05$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.51 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 512.4$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 470.54$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.92 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 427.56$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.7 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 425.37$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.39 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…4004backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 370.54$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.51 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 80c | 357.78$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.47 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 317.13$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.65 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 27c | 299.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 30c | 223.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 180.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…969abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 175.56$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 155.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 154.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Milwaukee Brewers | 23c | 153.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 146.94$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 136.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 72c | 135.68$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 127.87$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b84…6accbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 17c | 122.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 28c | 122.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 118.21$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…9b4bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 117.04$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 106.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 75c | 91.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Milwaukee Brewers | 16c | 91.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Milwaukee Brewers | 22c | 78.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 73.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1434…d63bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 70.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Milwaukee Brewers | 28c | 63.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 55.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 49.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 25c | 46.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 45.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 40.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 36.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 35.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 31.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…0438backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 78c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 72c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 14.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.