MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x415f61ddb94761a011203ff235a9db5e1771c7a5388fb666c8a245844c190ffd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 43c | 2,150$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.5 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under | 52c | 1,491$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.26 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 47c | 1,031$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.42 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 988.62$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.97 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 67c | 890.91$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.54 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 42c | 609.42$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.15 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 468.47$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.44 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 365.33$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Under | 55c | 360.01$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.01 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 48c | 310$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 56c | 309.82$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.86 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 68c | 224.29$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Under | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Under | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 54c | 165.24$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.23 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 55c | 162.7$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.48 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 72c | 149.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 46c | 140.93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 53c | 107.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 46c | 96.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b07…98a7backed Over | 37c | 92.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 56c | 87.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 82.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 67c | 77.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 54c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1434…d63bbacked Under | 53c | 70.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked Under | 55c | 70.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 68.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 48c | 65.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 36c | 59.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…6c9fbacked Over | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 45c | 53.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 49c | 49.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 39c | 48.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 46c | 35.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 47c | 28.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 66c | 24.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Under | 55c | 22.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 66c | 17.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.