TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,708
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,066

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,708 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2302…d6d2backed Over51c50,583$25,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,791.491,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ae1…9fadbacked Under49c45,511$22,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,300.426943.5%30 W · 39 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Under39c12,679$4,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,889.4416947.9%81 W · 88 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Over52c2,739$1,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.623441.2%14 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over67c2,607$1,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.8412,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over68c2,106$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.873,21951.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L+148.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over49c1,995$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.115,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under49c1,747$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.0375049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over51c1,696$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.861,92253.4%1,027 W · 895 L+28.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0767…36b0backed Under54c1,296$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.957750.6%39 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Over68c1,104$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.453261.8%329 W · 203 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99a7…fc82backed Under49c1,083$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.9114248.6%69 W · 73 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over49c1,016$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.291,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over46c928.56$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.992,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90e…107abacked Under56c875.06$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.432965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Over46c751.15$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.628360.2%50 W · 33 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under52c747.46$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.511,02658.1%596 W · 430 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f82…9ae1backed Under50c533.5$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.7523048.7%112 W · 118 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over68c490.4$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.931,19429%346 W · 848 L-0.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Over47c466.2$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.428032.5%26 W · 54 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Under52c463.72$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.8640348.4%195 W · 208 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ac4…a601backed Under50c388$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1945341.5%22 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over51c382.85$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.456,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over49c305.03$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.041,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over49c290.82$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.325,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over45c261.27$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.619,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under58c252.4$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.466,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd8…eecabacked Over46c248.21$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.0322248.6%108 W · 114 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Over50c243.98$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.6348850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over46c227$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.581,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981,44550%723 W · 722 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x198c…6a94backed Under50c197.74$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.285541.8%23 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9698…2504backed Under49c195.86$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9710349.5%51 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Over59c193.19$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6455464.1%355 W · 199 L+63.1wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Over51c190.31$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.251,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over47c154.91$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.11,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Over68c148.42$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4970154.2%380 W · 321 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Under35c136.05$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.076434.4%22 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under17c134.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.462,54645.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L-74.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x586d…c5dcbacked Under52c102.65$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.38742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Over51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.049444.7%42 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under50c95.06$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5336157.9%209 W · 152 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under53c84.84$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.572,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6762…a9a5backed Under36c76.97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9626853.4%143 W · 125 L+1.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over44c73.43$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.831,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac24…576ebacked Under50c69.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7222948%110 W · 119 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Under53c65.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.561,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Over68c64.62$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6838352.2%200 W · 183 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under47c63.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.966,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c09…990bbacked Over66c59.74$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.54633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-50.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5ba…fc31backed Under52c58.97$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.662751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Over50c58.43$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2257551.7%297 W · 278 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba90…a450backed Over50c58.2$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.13650%18 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4cb…a917backed Under50c57.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8120751.2%106 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under52c55.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9979943.2%345 W · 454 L-2.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Over52c52.44$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1772648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over56c52.23$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.871,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66ec…5891backed Under50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259043.3%39 W · 51 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa106…5abbbacked Over49c49.44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2119752.3%103 W · 94 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Over50c48.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2567444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Over45c47.28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2639653.5%212 W · 184 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over51c41.8$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4825249.6%125 W · 127 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Under55c41.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.753243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Over46c38.7$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.987453%463 W · 411 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdba8…5d91backed Over51c38.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6522650.4%114 W · 112 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1496…e155backed Under63c35.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1912050%60 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over68c34.79$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.134,40544.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L+80.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa3b…8568backed Over66c33.9$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.533868.4%26 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6683…f5f4backed Under58c33.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.524748.2%119 W · 128 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over46c31.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.051,58648.5%770 W · 816 L-2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c9…a454backed Over47c31.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.79942.4%42 W · 57 L-10.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed Under50c29.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8428850.3%145 W · 143 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over49c29.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0661948.6%301 W · 318 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed Over68c28.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2322554.7%123 W · 102 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over59c28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.482,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d8…85f8backed Over52c27.39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.153644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee6…f017backed Under54c26.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.535442.6%23 W · 31 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-16.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf51…5982backed Over47c26.51$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over61c25.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9466749.3%329 W · 338 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Over45c23.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1334355.4%190 W · 153 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9752…57a9backed Under50c20.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.