MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d9c2972ad1b329daa8f1955a5f0b3095e88daa5049d0854b6215562b5d3ca6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 57c | 6,590$3,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,815.98 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 45c | 3,583$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.45 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 58c | 2,055$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.05 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…96cbbacked Over | 41c | 1,567$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.26 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a2…6fc8backed Over | 42c | 1,375$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.62 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 39c | 1,120$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.33 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 44c | 1,099$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.37 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3464…8112backed Over | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 996.93$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.77 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 64c | 702.45$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.83 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 439.44$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.42 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 40c | 420$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 20c | 299$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 46c | 231.16$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.41 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 41c | 228$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 40c | 217.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 56c | 199.59$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.86 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Under | 57c | 189.3$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Over | 67c | 117.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.81 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…2f49backed Over | 10c | 115$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 40c | 101.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 43c | 101.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 343 | 55.4%190 W · 153 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 43c | 101.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 56c | 78.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 53c | 74.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Under | 44c | 72.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Under | 60c | 65.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 57c | 64.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 778 | 52.2%406 W · 372 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 43c | 63.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 29c | 62.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 61c | 61.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 68c | 49.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 56c | 48.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Under | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 41c | 37.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 56c | 34.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 64c | 33.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 54c | 32.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Over | 42c | 28.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Under | 56c | 25.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 56c | 22.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.