MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x436da823c1f54f72b6a863b2200f75e2a11733c805008335d7be1e9913159c13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39eb…0e4cbacked Boston Red Sox | 45c | 7,136$3,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,211.33 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 68c | 3,474$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Yankees | 57c | 2,023$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.65 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Boston Red Sox | 59c | 1,907$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.28 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed New York Yankees | 44c | 1,353$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.82 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked New York Yankees | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox | 56c | 991.54$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.26 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed New York Yankees | 41c | 585.06$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.72 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 40c | 543.71$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.59 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 514.51$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.93 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 505$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.77 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 403.07$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.75 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…91fbbacked New York Yankees | 43c | 375.7$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.15 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 352.53$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.37 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Yankees | 43c | 306.15$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.51 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4849…767fbacked New York Yankees | 41c | 304.68$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 67c | 267.66$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Boston Red Sox | 57c | 252.27$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.32 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed New York Yankees | 80c | 218.35$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked New York Yankees | 56c | 142.22$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Boston Red Sox | 56c | 118.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…4004backed New York Yankees | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed New York Yankees | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa928…bbaabacked New York Yankees | 40c | 96.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked New York Yankees | 59c | 81.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 80.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked New York Yankees | 70c | 77.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…86e7backed New York Yankees | 42c | 75.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed New York Yankees | 40c | 62.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed New York Yankees | 42c | 51.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Yankees | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked New York Yankees | 80c | 44.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Boston Red Sox | 56c | 44.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 35.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked New York Yankees | 72c | 34.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked New York Yankees | 70c | 32.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed New York Yankees | 39c | 31.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed New York Yankees | 40c | 30.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked New York Yankees | 40c | 27.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees | 80c | 20.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 20.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 398 | 50.3%200 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Boston Red Sox | 57c | 19.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.