MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24f3ecf4f74868edd46bf2aa1350d3634704d980b064334ad7784dbb03070d52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 50c | 3,686$1,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 54c | 3,129$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.4 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 2,446$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.27 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 52c | 2,115$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.67 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…e11cbacked Under | 32c | 1,925$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.82 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 51c | 1,289$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.86 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 61c | 1,082$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.02 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 49c | 1,060$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…7e17backed Under | 49c | 989.18$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.48 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 67c | 676.63$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 50c | 555.68$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.28 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 63c | 500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 49c | 485.32$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.73 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 32c | 437.02$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.03 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 68c | 374.2$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 292.91$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.31 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 48c | 242.54$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.12 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 51c | 228.8$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.24 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 51c | 225.49$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.98 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 197.23$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.63 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…12ddbacked Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 50c | 183.07$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.54 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 52c | 154.88$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 68c | 143.83$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Under | 50c | 143.67$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 38c | 143.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.83 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 50c | 135.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 50c | 103.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Under | 34c | 102.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 72c | 100.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 50c | 78.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 49c | 67.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…a9c7backed Under | 49c | 59.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 49c | 57.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…5891backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf167…28eebacked Under | 45c | 42.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 30c | 39.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba8…5d91backed Under | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 226 | 50.4%114 W · 112 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 38c | 35.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 38c | 35.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 38c | 35.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…69ddbacked Over | 72c | 31.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Under | 50c | 28.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…57a9backed Over | 51c | 25.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 53c | 25.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 69c | 24.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 48c | 24.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Under | 51c | 22.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.