MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba969655b9720bbf3cc5776ef5703ce3c948a6eebc5f214b00d0d3294f5b030f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 47c | 1,662$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.71 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 894.02$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.85 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 793.18$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.29 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 499.99$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 25c | 429.58$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.85 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 410.06$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.14 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 384.55$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 282.78$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.98 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 190.59$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.88 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Atlanta Braves | 65c | 79.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 74.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 49.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Atlanta Braves | 61c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 39.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Philadelphia Phillies | 77c | 36.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1434…d63bbacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 35.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 31.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 20.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta BravesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.