MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd40fa7d327a8cab0b634d4a82a00d4dff31726ad5c07d7764c8e29db05bc9ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 50c | 36,770$18,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,384.82 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 20,612$10,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,306.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 50c | 9,800$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.96 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 51c | 3,188$1,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625.76 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Over | 50c | 2,910$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Under | 51c | 2,130$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.35 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.78 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 50c | 1,938$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.03 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 49c | 1,835$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.35 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 50c | 1,506$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.21 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 1,360$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 50c | 1,119$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.5 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 50c | 995.64$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.82 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 925.67$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.09 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 50c | 880.31$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.75 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 69c | 872.09$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.71 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 19c | 616.44$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 50c | 445.37$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.05 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 409.86$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.89 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…325bbacked Under | 50c | 369.03$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.51 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 50c | 291$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 49c | 243.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.15 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 188$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.38 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ff…9d91backed Over | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 204 | 43.1%88 W · 116 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 48c | 161.73$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 155.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 50c | 130.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 50c | 129.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 51c | 122.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 49c | 108.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d70…1115backed Under | 51c | 85.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…99a1backed Over | 50c | 72.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +228%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Under | 49c | 69.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 50c | 67.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 50c | 66.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 53c | 65.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 49c | 60.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 50c | 59.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Over | 57c | 51.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 56c | 49.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 54c | 38.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…8064backed Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a03…279abacked Over | 50c | 38.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f2…d12fbacked Under | 49c | 35.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 64c | 31.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Under | 50c | 31.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d78…e218backed Over | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f01dbacked Over | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…5be2backed Over | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Under | 51c | 28.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5a…24f1backed Over | 50c | 28.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed Under | 50c | 23.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 51c | 20.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 52c | 19.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 57c | 18.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta BravesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.