Us Politics · resolved market
Trump + Biden debate on June 27 as planned?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4df9b983c037c0baa85f1d10184ef5f2dc000a979eedcd78b69edbfd5bb651c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked No | 1c | 20,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 2c | 11,500$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 20c | 11,240$2,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260.6 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb3…f8dfbacked No | 8c | 9,848$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d35…0a41backed No | 2c | 6,355$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 11c | 5,705$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.9 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d43…ac2bbacked No | 2c | 4,500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…dbadbacked No | 19c | 4,109$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36f…122cbacked No | 21c | 2,667$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 6c | 2,349$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.51 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked No | 9c | 1,984$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.08 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…53c3backed No | 2c | 1,240$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…7879backed No | 6c | 1,167$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3956backed No | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x918e…5189backed No | 2c | 829.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed No | 4c | 738.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8272…14bbbacked No | 12c | 694.89$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901d…a22bbacked No | 2c | 577.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…df0cbacked No | 11c | 543.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 30c | 526.87$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.06 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…3e0bbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c4…d5a1backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4f…cb24backed No | 20c | 499.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e85…b85dbacked No | 12c | 482.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a3…c73abacked No | 2c | 476.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbc…cdc1backed No | 20c | 450$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059f…e7b4backed No | 18c | 442.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…deacbacked No | 12c | 373$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…2b65backed No | 8c | 330.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…c932backed No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…28ffbacked No | 21c | 277.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -77%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbf…79f6backed No | 9c | 277.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ef…3758backed No | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee5…83d6backed No | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…faafbacked No | 22c | 159.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc26…ac6ebacked No | 17c | 155.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4b…e337backed No | 18c | 155.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7799…ad20backed No | 19c | 146$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72da…e2b1backed No | 19c | 134.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeca…7377backed Yes | 75c | 123$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 78c | 113.64$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -65%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc876…cedfbacked No | 16c | 112.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…7e92backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe667…75bfbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6855…f938backed No | 12c | 91.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1d…f471backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1a…26c3backed No | 22c | 73.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf376…c64fbacked No | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c5…dfd9backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 77c | 58.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90f…de39backed Yes | 79c | 34.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +275.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3e…f727backed Yes | 78c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd5…4b87backed Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91a…f6edbacked Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…1ec7backed Yes | 76c | 29.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb5…49c5backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987d…0864backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb69…0088backed Yes | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.