Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2024 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x813e44dd1717ed1e1ccfa5f67b5e4d681f7a91cf12dfd8278608698f03b0f89d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $884,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $676,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $884,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 4c | 108,299$4,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,007.08 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dda…6aa2backed Yes | 4c | 100,000$4,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad7…5a86backed Yes | 4c | 42,275$1,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,769.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 5c | 37,904$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,863.45 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…c932backed Yes | 6c | 30,664$1,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,742.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc78c…0c5abacked Yes | 8c | 20,000$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…9b86backed Yes | 1c | 17,653$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 7c | 15,328$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.13 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 14,324$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.29 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…63ffbacked Yes | 6c | 12,521$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked Yes | 5c | 11,328$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99e…4279backed Yes | 4c | 10,604$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f67…5786backed Yes | 5c | 10,555$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc668…e830backed Yes | 5c | 10,208$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…44c4backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +189%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ed…9a28backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…8354backed Yes | 8c | 9,000$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd863…3a7fbacked Yes | 7c | 8,577$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8225…c4a8backed Yes | 5c | 7,854$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f8…3bfdbacked Yes | 7c | 7,213$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f5…18a3backed Yes | 6c | 6,976$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccd…6baabacked Yes | 6c | 6,942$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…b582backed Yes | 6c | 6,838$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc099…49e9backed Yes | 5c | 6,383$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…1eacbacked Yes | 6c | 6,180$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ef…9523backed Yes | 7c | 5,959$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.94 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 8c | 5,703$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe2…580abacked Yes | 4c | 5,619$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb142…a441backed Yes | 7c | 5,353$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8966backed Yes | 6c | 5,281$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f52…046fbacked Yes | 5c | 5,051$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…b35bbacked Yes | 5c | 4,915$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…5006backed Yes | 2c | 4,810$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc3…bec9backed Yes | 5c | 4,639$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2e99backed Yes | 7c | 4,331$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1da…8f6abacked Yes | 7c | 4,203$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…fb0cbacked Yes | 7c | 4,167$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506d…6654backed Yes | 5c | 4,090$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…1ff6backed Yes | 6c | 4,074$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73cc…7154backed Yes | 6c | 3,915$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x627b…7d19backed Yes | 6c | 3,577$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b3…28f4backed Yes | 6c | 3,498$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae0…061cbacked Yes | 7c | 3,085$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…1c96backed Yes | 4c | 2,800$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d01…8064backed Yes | 7c | 2,653$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797c…9df4backed Yes | 3c | 2,453$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fe…f8e6backed Yes | 6c | 2,201$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd562…181fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,140$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ee…4ab8backed Yes | 4c | 2,121$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e4…86cabacked Yes | 5c | 2,083$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc375…5c60backed Yes | 5c | 2,083$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9082…e0a7backed Yes | 5c | 2,047$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0879…2d81backed Yes | 5c | 2,010$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…42c1backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…4847backed Yes | 6c | 1,964$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…ba9dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,846$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d32…6c35backed Yes | 8c | 1,666$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f2…cfa0backed Yes | 6c | 1,591$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 8c | 1,570$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…d39abacked Yes | 5c | 1,569$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…59c7backed Yes | 6c | 1,564$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 5c | 1,559$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…1d6cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,548$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x145c…962bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,530$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfe…3879backed Yes | 6c | 1,508$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd26d…1834backed Yes | 7c | 1,461$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 7c | 1,414$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…e385backed Yes | 7c | 1,400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…fdf3backed Yes | 6c | 1,353$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556a…8bf1backed Yes | 5c | 1,333$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x601d…48d5backed Yes | 3c | 1,298$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f5…7812backed Yes | 7c | 1,297$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401a…d730backed Yes | 6c | 1,226$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…2290backed Yes | 4c | 1,136$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +158.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1188…1d1fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,132$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4e…dcb9backed Yes | 6c | 1,100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…716dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa0…32c5backed Yes | 8c | 1,086$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.81 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…fcf6backed Yes | 3c | 1,033$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x928f…7680backed Yes | 6c | 1,010$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d1…1a60backed Yes | 7c | 1,001$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e74…e0a0backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…cc09backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f7…5297backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…e1c9backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c21…d6bfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +57%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…8530backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…e4cfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…5388backed Yes | 7c | 999.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 6c | 999$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…2dcebacked Yes | 5c | 925.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…2cc4backed Yes | 3c | 906.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d7…8db9backed Yes | 5c | 900$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d92…f1a1backed Yes | 4c | 891.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…f802backed Yes | 7c | 889.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2024 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2024 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2024 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 July meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.