Fed Rates · resolved market
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 July meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebee0e66d85db23e24592a0412fb1275efe505b6fbc6d32966c70942cdde8038
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $517,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $571,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $517,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde24…25a8backed No | 4c | 68,946$2,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,767.07 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 5c | 39,490$2,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,041.56 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6cbbacked No | 5c | 11,298$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked No | 8c | 7,547$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…c932backed No | 12c | 5,900$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 5c | 3,969$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…9b86backed No | 2c | 3,656$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.66 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8966backed No | 6c | 3,343$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…44c4backed No | 5c | 3,300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +189%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 6c | 3,000$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b0…9eadbacked No | 8c | 2,949$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…c530backed No | 4c | 2,067$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…42c1backed No | 8c | 2,000$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c1…50e1backed No | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…c806backed No | 5c | 1,756$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed No | 6c | 1,428$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.71 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 6c | 1,334$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 7c | 1,076$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…47ddbacked No | 5c | 1,031$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…8448backed No | 5c | 1,008$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e63…399abacked No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x230c…a06bbacked No | 6c | 895.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3157…3234backed No | 5c | 824.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 8c | 800$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 3c | 723.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…de01backed No | 9c | 574.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…faafbacked No | 9c | 511.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…04ffbacked No | 6c | 509.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…589dbacked No | 8c | 470.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fc24backed No | 5c | 425$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…3109backed No | 3c | 420.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…5dd2backed No | 5c | 408.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5e…4c63backed No | 9c | 269.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf89f…7015backed No | 12c | 213.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…791fbacked No | 5c | 200.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafdb…f554backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7b…9374backed No | 6c | 190$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7d…8407backed No | 6c | 172.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762b…910fbacked No | 7c | 151.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +651.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 7c | 142$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…d686backed No | 10c | 137.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 July meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2024 meeting?No won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2024 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2024 meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.