Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2024 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b544e761863106ba78a3380ad72a06a0fa65e61daabf31dae7da443af129edc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $637,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $518,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $637,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37a8…8966backed Yes | 1c | 40,662$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1873…41cdbacked Yes | 2c | 39,604$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ef…9523backed Yes | 1c | 32,831$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.93 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…1ff6backed Yes | 1c | 20,687$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…a314backed Yes | 0c | 18,500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 1c | 18,215$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.34 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad7…5a86backed Yes | 1c | 15,859$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b0…9eadbacked Yes | 1c | 15,437$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73cc…7154backed Yes | 1c | 14,746$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99e…4279backed Yes | 1c | 14,372$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…8354backed Yes | 2c | 12,730$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x613c…58b5backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343c…909abacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…f802backed Yes | 1c | 9,278$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 1c | 8,898$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.09 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49db…2019backed Yes | 0c | 8,503$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -79%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 0c | 7,145$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2e99backed Yes | 1c | 6,748$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd863…3a7fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,540$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c1…1ef7backed Yes | 1c | 5,387$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…fdf3backed Yes | 1c | 4,853$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes | 1c | 4,680$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb19…20a4backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…c806backed Yes | 1c | 3,703$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c6…451bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,574$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 0c | 3,333$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…63ffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,932$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…1cecbacked Yes | 1c | 2,917$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad9…0664backed Yes | 1c | 2,879$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…8839backed Yes | 1c | 2,850$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e9…77c8backed Yes | 1c | 2,700$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c4…ce5fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,667$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…2e62backed Yes | 1c | 2,663$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2437…f2f1backed Yes | 1c | 2,579$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…24e1backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…b582backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda85…5e72backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d32…6c35backed Yes | 1c | 2,015$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…e197backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa0…32c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,976$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd562…181fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,862$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43e…9c72backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec4e…dcb9backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d2…627cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,360$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7a…799bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,315$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797c…9df4backed Yes | 1c | 1,266$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f5…7812backed Yes | 1c | 1,212$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdc…a4fcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…a699backed Yes | 1c | 1,010$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb650…55d8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f8…3bfdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac0…6afcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a9…8c37backed Yes | 1c | 726.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb7…9732backed Yes | 2c | 576.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5163…f4aebacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2024 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2024 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2024 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 July meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.