TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,308,141
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,411,670

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,308,141 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 316 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4685…4de3backed No0c4,910,846$10,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,517.4630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d51…5157backed No0c824,844$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d26…7bbabacked No0c541,864$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.62540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49f3…76fbbacked No4c384,488$15,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,896.312634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fb2…db4ebacked No0c346,000$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-72%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf54…e5bebacked No0c296,753$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…f43dbacked No0c284,996$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked No0c259,171$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.18137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5b…d4ecbacked No0c249,415$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ab…daccbacked No0c200,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-58.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd28e…fd57backed No0c175,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa891…6ed8backed No0c114,398$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.75616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c01…aa10backed No0c105,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0258…2642backed No0c95,250$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked No0c88,427$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2811728.2%33 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2416…4431backed No0c82,092$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb39…e932backed No0c72,891$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.715217.3%9 W · 43 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-46.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No0c67,064$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0615626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xabaf…66e2backed No0c66,000$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb10c…c7a7backed No0c57,650$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-55.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53a8…4b54backed No0c56,721$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105621.4%12 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d88…ba3dbacked No0c55,085$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf246…de5dbacked No0c54,525$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c3a…3523backed No0c51,667$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b2d…156bbacked No1c50,220$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.691741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9613…7528backed No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50350%0 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x054c…f72dbacked No0c49,900$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x398c…dcd3backed No0c45,280$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78e4…4fb9backed No0c45,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+59.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50ab…4accbacked No0c39,400$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7887…87aabacked No0c35,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1808…fc98backed No0c34,500$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cdf…0023backed No0c33,420$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9506…4f87backed No0c31,710$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ff…bbd1backed No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30581.7%1 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86c1…08fdbacked No0c25,570$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.14425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-44.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5593…6eb9backed No0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b24…289dbacked No0c24,798$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbd0…598bbacked No0c24,485$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d0c…6138backed No0c23,895$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x689c…f9adbacked No0c22,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-52.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked No1c20,294$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.1313518.5%25 W · 110 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa660…1293backed No0c20,200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c6…c8c8backed Yes19c19,750$3,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,065.961450%7 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+140.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x48e8…bb1bbacked No0c18,955$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0a0…dfb8backed No0c18,100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28eb…516abacked No0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca46…17e6backed No0c17,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10c7…69bdbacked No0c17,496$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e28…dc83backed Yes10c17,006$1,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,375.052429.2%7 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x092c…97debacked No0c17,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e7…2ab2backed No0c15,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x415d…7c96backed No0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cbb…35d8backed No0c14,840$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc7…8a27backed No4c14,752$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5253836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ce8…662ebacked No6c14,716$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.953823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked No0c14,297$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3956336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf777…3cdebacked No0c13,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a6d…1cefbacked No0c13,275$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cca…731dbacked No0c12,591$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05f7…4cd8backed No0c12,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0069…f357backed No0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4059…a854backed No0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7940…376ebacked No0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf14a…fd29backed No0c11,857$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.38450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x262e…5ef0backed No0c11,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d61…2a08backed No0c10,995$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c73…846abacked No0c10,580$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9093…2ecbbacked No0c10,100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b6…3158backed No0c10,008$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.543953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+49.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5425…ee29backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d4d…ca54backed No1c10,000$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.83145.2%14 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8de…2bf8backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0fd…6d95backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+94.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6b…729bbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3f7…aa48backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…f0e7backed Yes24c9,997$2,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,602.521827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4dd…b4d9backed No0c9,950$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No3c9,901$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.028827.3%24 W · 64 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x49d5…14ebbacked No0c9,255$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27db…5897backed No0c9,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed65…08f4backed No0c8,683$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73fa…1ba2backed No1c8,388$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e82…7607backed No0c8,050$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1141…55b1backed No4c8,050$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.932015%3 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked No2c8,031$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.483444.1%15 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+23.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb90e…a726backed No0c8,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No62c7,874$4,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,921.158359%49 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c1a…727ebacked No0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf879…ee5cbacked No0c7,394$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc80e…e961backed No0c7,010$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5db7…dc05backed No0c7,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5634…0e95backed No0c7,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes67c7,000$4,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,337.263351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00c9…b063backed No0c6,833$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ad…92abbacked No6c6,704$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.76922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.