China Taiwan · resolved market
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40c02fe4023e316f5ef4c0a5afd3e5eef81538d9ee98b315f503f2d1326fc7ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,365,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,536,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,365,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 258 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 31,727$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.92 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d46…a6bfbacked Yes | 5c | 25,475$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 20,149$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.39 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bc…ffb3backed Yes | 10c | 19,473$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,020.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4755…7ad2backed Yes | 9c | 17,727$1,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,616.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…25dbbacked Yes | 2c | 16,124$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 4c | 16,087$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed Yes | 1c | 14,798$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 12,140$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…a9f2backed Yes | 9c | 11,907$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…ed3abacked Yes | 4c | 11,505$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 1c | 11,430$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e23…5411backed Yes | 9c | 11,098$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 2c | 11,062$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…ae6cbacked Yes | 8c | 10,782$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1962…aa3ebacked Yes | 3c | 10,755$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +92%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 11c | 10,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…e556backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 9,994$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 10c | 9,793$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9414…4f51backed Yes | 7c | 9,533$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…5c8fbacked Yes | 4c | 9,448$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf23d…b77abacked Yes | 12c | 9,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes | 1c | 8,239$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 8c | 7,000$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 4c | 6,548$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes | 14c | 6,260$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…5626backed Yes | 9c | 6,076$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 11c | 6,055$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 15c | 5,983$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…d5f9backed Yes | 6c | 5,958$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,756$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -71%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…268bbacked Yes | 19c | 5,601$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c1…708fbacked Yes | 10c | 5,046$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 10c | 4,844$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…625bbacked Yes | 10c | 4,770$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…e2ebbacked Yes | 11c | 4,618$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Yes | 13c | 4,304$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3391…dfe0backed Yes | 10c | 4,304$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d39…81f7backed Yes | 1c | 3,878$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,723$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…074ebacked Yes | 10c | 3,720$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a94…b59fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,500$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…b05dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,495$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,424$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,233$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.56 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fc…0adebacked Yes | 1c | 3,223$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b34…c545backed Yes | 2c | 2,929$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…5096backed Yes | 3c | 2,720$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 8c | 2,682$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 5c | 2,682$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.83 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebe…a25ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,662$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 2,661$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ca…7168backed Yes | 4c | 2,509$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…a016backed Yes | 4c | 2,509$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 2c | 2,502$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9640…283ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02b…9e76backed Yes | 13c | 2,487$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…61e5backed Yes | 16c | 2,425$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 4c | 2,328$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…1a87backed Yes | 5c | 2,168$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 9c | 2,157$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d09…1714backed Yes | 7c | 2,135$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f51ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,125$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 2c | 2,022$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 8c | 2,012$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d9…00ecbacked Yes | 1c | 2,004$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0a…8340backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25df…6fffbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd8…bdd5backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe79c…c715backed Yes | 3c | 1,972$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,899$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…cb9ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,896$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…2f3bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,873$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…e620backed Yes | 1c | 1,810$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,786$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.16 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbf…066bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,738$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a6…3055backed Yes | 1c | 1,669$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…aec0backed Yes | 8c | 1,664$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,655$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes | 2c | 1,517$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81dd…90f6backed Yes | 3c | 1,501$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd3…56c4backed Yes | 13c | 1,441$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 10c | 1,441$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…d649backed Yes | 9c | 1,437$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,344$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b5…d159backed Yes | 13c | 1,341$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2e…a483backed Yes | 15c | 1,323$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 6c | 1,300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 1c | 1,278$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 20c | 1,262$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2a…fd6dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,250$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 16c | 1,234$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.44 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 1,200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 8c | 1,200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- China x Taiwan military clash by December 31?this page
- China x Taiwan military clash by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.