China Taiwan · resolved market
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d4aa0f7fc078388aa90b44726a7918756dfa3ef3b5d286759bc5677d466aed5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $669,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $733,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $669,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe253…f4dbbacked Yes | 3c | 191,085$6,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,359.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…928fbacked Yes | 6c | 14,950$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…ae6cbacked Yes | 3c | 14,173$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee9…37d2backed Yes | 3c | 13,707$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 12,848$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 2c | 10,758$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 1c | 9,562$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bd…23fabacked Yes | 1c | 9,137$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 2c | 8,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…bd86backed Yes | 2c | 7,736$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…1b79backed Yes | 1c | 7,235$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…d5f9backed Yes | 1c | 6,554$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,344$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,545$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 5,429$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.61 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…f801backed Yes | 7c | 5,372$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…268bbacked Yes | 10c | 4,770$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…61e5backed Yes | 9c | 4,310$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70e…39c6backed Yes | 5c | 4,071$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…aea9backed Yes | 2c | 3,949$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 2c | 3,905$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 2c | 3,713$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab55…df2abacked Yes | 2c | 3,510$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…e25abacked Yes | 2c | 3,485$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 3c | 3,151$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6c…64efbacked Yes | 7c | 2,864$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c0…1404backed Yes | 2c | 2,762$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,600$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2666…6ee2backed Yes | 8c | 2,418$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 2,353$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,046$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 1,995$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.55 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 7c | 1,691$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…f1f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,667$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529f…ffd4backed Yes | 1c | 1,620$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,538$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a3…ac88backed Yes | 1c | 1,527$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…e2f8backed Yes | 7c | 1,469$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…aaadbacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 2c | 1,297$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,123$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…e696backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 5c | 855.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9623…972fbacked Yes | 6c | 833.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 3c | 729.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 6c | 585.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 559.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8720…6f76backed Yes | 2c | 550$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…bc49backed Yes | 5c | 548.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 520.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a4…4cc7backed Yes | 6c | 508.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 2c | 504.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…aeebbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 482.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes | 6c | 450$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 440.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 5c | 418.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f5…8c0cbacked Yes | 3c | 418.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes | 8c | 414.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0afe…e152backed Yes | 6c | 380.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…9061backed Yes | 7c | 380.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a5…9b3bbacked Yes | 8c | 375.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 6c | 374$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5202…0e82backed Yes | 6c | 357.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 6c | 334$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11e…70babacked Yes | 4c | 300.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…4e56backed Yes | 6c | 252.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 8c | 241$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed Yes | 59c | 220.92$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb4…f7fdbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…9821backed Yes | 8c | 144.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…abb8backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 35c | 60.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked No | 44c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 55cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- China x Taiwan military clash by June 30?this page
- China x Taiwan military clash by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.