AI · resolved market
Any Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3958a7207ea6ed2b47fc7e3b03943e9f3c4a745cb71d7515dc529dd91e102ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $397,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $333,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $397,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcce2…d58bbacked No | 2c | 32,281$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ad…f71abacked No | 18c | 27,226$4,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,806.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 8c | 22,596$1,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,887.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 5c | 21,165$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.03 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 4c | 19,104$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…a8eebacked No | 15c | 11,578$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked No | 15c | 8,888$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc158…f3cabacked No | 25c | 7,937$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…2dbcbacked No | 10c | 6,995$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…8e57backed No | 6c | 6,122$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 10c | 5,939$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.52 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed No | 5c | 5,030$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.59 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed No | 19c | 5,000$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -78%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 23c | 5,000$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e0…1661backed No | 21c | 4,846$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 6c | 4,638$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.39 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…2ce6backed No | 18c | 4,495$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a6…c13fbacked No | 5c | 3,930$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae4…7670backed No | 25c | 3,563$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…e72ebacked No | 15c | 3,439$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +398%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…0c71backed No | 21c | 3,216$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 3c | 3,079$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 9c | 3,000$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…2e4cbacked No | 20c | 2,962$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…8c68backed No | 23c | 2,673$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 8c | 2,516$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.1 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…fb21backed No | 5c | 2,501$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 2,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 21c | 2,293$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.63 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 2,209$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 23c | 2,100$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.6 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8587…cb53backed No | 5c | 1,901$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…cba0backed No | 14c | 1,843$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…f517backed No | 1c | 1,713$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108c…7d81backed No | 6c | 1,709$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 15c | 1,605$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.07 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 7c | 1,597$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.74 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 1,578$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 26c | 1,521$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed No | 14c | 1,486$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 9c | 1,480$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 21c | 1,471$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c8…f309backed No | 2c | 1,458$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 2c | 1,404$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec2…cb66backed No | 21c | 1,400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…2e31backed No | 23c | 1,313$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 7c | 1,250$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed No | 21c | 1,192$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…5bb5backed No | 21c | 1,115$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 8c | 1,035$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked No | 25c | 1,000$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 5c | 1,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 5c | 1,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked No | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…9769backed No | 6c | 998.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…0863backed No | 13c | 981.51$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 26c | 973.19$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.7 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…3e00backed No | 20c | 956.54$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237c…93ffbacked No | 8c | 931.52$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 6c | 922.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…2b77backed No | 12c | 866.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 17c | 855.49$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.48 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c599backed No | 3c | 840.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x894a…3d3cbacked No | 6c | 711.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked No | 16c | 700$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 15c | 682.45$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.17 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 79c | 652.29$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 10c | 648.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked No | 6c | 642.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d1…ac72backed No | 12c | 623.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 16c | 610.04$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 9c | 580.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…9a1ebacked No | 5c | 555.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 29c | 540.88$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.76 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 9c | 536.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bbc1backed No | 6c | 525$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…51afbacked No | 8c | 508.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd29e…eef8backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ab…4481backed No | 3c | 490.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 10c | 464.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee90…d959backed No | 12c | 431.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c43…626dbacked No | 27c | 417.8$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 25c | 411.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 11c | 411.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4205…9c74backed No | 15c | 411$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac1…718abacked No | 10c | 410$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed No | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…9a45backed No | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69c…1d0cbacked No | 27c | 363.05$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…83f1backed No | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…23c1backed No | 15c | 346.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e2…5148backed No | 5c | 338.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6625…e343backed No | 22c | 321.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 7c | 303.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 9c | 300.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.