Ukraine · resolved market
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79fe1c0701d145ed4b74e6b7b3658acbc9b016b70e7321afdb777ad14e8c236c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $801,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $748,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $801,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 529 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac22…5442backed Yes | 33c | 49,095$16,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,283.61 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…dc3abacked No | 74c | 47,167$34,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,263.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc34…8b32backed Yes | 26c | 47,167$12,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,263.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…2427backed No | 52c | 46,489$24,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,156.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b1…1ea7backed Yes | 26c | 43,114$11,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,209.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2e…09c8backed No | 74c | 43,114$31,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,209.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 48c | 30,281$14,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,499.02 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 74c | 26,736$19,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,991.63 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 61c | 17,402$10,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,707.25 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…09f8backed Yes | 33c | 15,951$5,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,238.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 71c | 13,441$9,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,944.68 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3037…3e7ebacked Yes | 42c | 13,096$5,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,513.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 69c | 12,627$8,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,953.11 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 76c | 11,726$8,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,821.83 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -8.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 23c | 11,183$2,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,627.06 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 11,025$3,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,391.72 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x833a…adecbacked Yes | 27c | 10,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 16c | 9,708$1,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.39 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe140…78d4backed No | 57c | 8,383$4,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,633.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 10c | 8,053$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.72 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked No | 68c | 8,005$5,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,592.95 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…1b93backed No | 78c | 7,615$5,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +208.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 7,395$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.32 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…0439backed Yes | 34c | 6,985$2,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,389.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 27c | 6,857$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.66 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3988…ea43backed Yes | 16c | 6,121$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 47c | 5,668$2,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,688.49 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 39c | 4,937$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,917.78 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 28c | 4,728$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.81 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…5ee2backed Yes | 23c | 4,506$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.61 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 6c | 4,216$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.6 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 79c | 3,965$3,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.58 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…de0cbacked Yes | 8c | 3,901$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 35c | 3,636$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.89 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 20c | 3,556$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 35c | 3,409$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed No | 65c | 3,381$2,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 28c | 3,373$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.75 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21d…8287backed No | 66c | 3,099$2,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb31…e5afbacked Yes | 27c | 3,025$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 74c | 2,883$2,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.85 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…703cbacked Yes | 34c | 2,791$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.04 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 2,700$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.64 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Yes | 40c | 2,667$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,619$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x808e…7969backed Yes | 9c | 2,398$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 28c | 2,317$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.62 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 27c | 2,269$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.49 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 75c | 2,084$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.68 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed No | 71c | 2,062$1,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.65 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a4…9ba4backed Yes | 9c | 2,050$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…c453backed Yes | 34c | 2,043$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 34c | 2,022$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.99 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a2…8770backed Yes | 20c | 2,013$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 64c | 1,964$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.45 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…021ebacked No | 52c | 1,929$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 18c | 1,824$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.75 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 73c | 1,794$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.39 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 66c | 1,783$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.31 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ce…e8dbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,776$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7725…89bcbacked Yes | 37c | 1,774$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked No | 61c | 1,762$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 5c | 1,749$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 66c | 1,704$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.27 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…c966backed No | 71c | 1,647$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.41 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…cafebacked No | 66c | 1,554$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.81 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked No | 68c | 1,500$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.03 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c7…cabebacked Yes | 24c | 1,500$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 21c | 1,474$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.83 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…f962backed No | 69c | 1,455$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…389dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,406$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 57c | 1,363$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.09 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,332$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…aeb7backed Yes | 43c | 1,311$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.79 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed Yes | 4c | 1,305$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,285$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.52 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d84…086bbacked No | 78c | 1,285$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 36c | 1,264$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 24c | 1,244$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.99 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed Yes | 5c | 1,225$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 29c | 1,203$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.52 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 37c | 1,163$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 67c | 1,149$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.76 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked Yes | 26c | 1,119$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6522…5d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 1,099$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 4c | 1,071$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…3e0bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,069$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.95 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 34c | 1,052$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 55c | 1,038$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.42 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,026$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.84 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 4c | 1,017$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…b754backed Yes | 29c | 1,008$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.29 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 68c | 1,000$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…4180backed No | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +45%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 35c | 1,000$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 36c | 999.99$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a95…6a76backed Yes | 44c | 973.97$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15e…ab86backed Yes | 4c | 948$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe8…b7e4backed No | 53c | 940.08$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.