TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x90dd…14e3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
16

Best Category: Macro Indicators, grading 50 out of 100 (0.00 per pick) — its least-bad Category, not a recommendation. Every Category this wallet trades grades at or below 50, which is what “no edge at all” looks like.

Best Category Macro Indicators at 50 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$62.1
Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.98
Nord Stream pipeline turned on in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.37
Trump meets Xi, Putin, and Kim by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.54
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$53.2
Will Russia invade Finland in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.45
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.53
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$42.11
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$49.52
Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$31.83
Russia coup attempt in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.68
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST90%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28.6
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.56
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Xi visit the US by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.04
Trump removed via 25th Amendment in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33.1
Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.24
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.06
Will Trump be impeached in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$39.45
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.72
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.17
Will DeMar DeRozan win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.45
Will De'Aaron Fox win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.82
Will Nicolas Claxton win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.48
Will Tari Eason win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.59
Will John Collins win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.45
Will Donte DiVincenzo win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.11
Will DeAndre Hunter win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.44
All 8 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran nuclear test in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28.55
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$27.68
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$14.94
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.89
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$34.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dogecoin all time high before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alexander Sorloth be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro visits the U.S. by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lyon win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.58
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.