IPO · resolved market
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40ead87026416ba8444c67b19fe9903b3a89b9c301985646a22c4d2e93fbf057
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $325,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $236,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31ae…4b60backed Yes | 0c | 20,869$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 9,738$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 0c | 8,289$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…4b9fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,115$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed4…c2f5backed Yes | 1c | 7,110$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,699$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…8457backed Yes | 0c | 3,950$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 0c | 3,711$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d50…b166backed Yes | 1c | 3,223$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb0…14ecbacked Yes | 1c | 3,037$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc69…13b1backed Yes | 1c | 3,037$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3124…4cfbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,035$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4384…6065backed Yes | 1c | 3,031$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace7…52c1backed Yes | 0c | 3,026$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db5…0824backed Yes | 0c | 3,026$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3765…6d9ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,026$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd1…b660backed Yes | 0c | 2,926$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…9e9fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,602$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…fbfdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,310$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,235$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…f9f5backed Yes | 1c | 2,157$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,871$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7178…7d09backed Yes | 1c | 1,752$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,340$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 3c | 1,119$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,083$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 3c | 978$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 3c | 839.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7e…71b7backed Yes | 2c | 839.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed Yes | 3c | 817.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46fa…9a8cbacked Yes | 3c | 745.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 2c | 652.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 638.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 636.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed Yes | 3c | 605.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes | 3c | 559.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecf9…94d7backed Yes | 3c | 473.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…b49fbacked Yes | 3c | 466.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes | 3c | 458.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 3c | 408.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…6387backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…c372backed Yes | 6c | 186.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.