IPO · resolved market
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1f296e1f58f9e7f6b0eb8a4f25c4e6759528c44e30c714debc311a4b5407afb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $347,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $355,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $347,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 11,324$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.35 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f138backed Yes | 1c | 7,106$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…a181backed Yes | 1c | 7,070$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…7c7dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,030$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8211…a3e7backed Yes | 1c | 7,030$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5506…9bb9backed Yes | 1c | 6,214$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc94…d3a4backed Yes | 1c | 6,082$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…d3ddbacked Yes | 1c | 5,076$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…1990backed Yes | 4c | 4,792$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x941f…60e5backed Yes | 1c | 4,280$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8119…2b29backed Yes | 1c | 4,014$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…be58backed Yes | 1c | 4,010$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df6…6520backed Yes | 1c | 3,743$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0b…e54fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,520$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 3,482$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,418$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,178$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…5c55backed Yes | 3c | 3,175$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa681…8b89backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d6…7703backed Yes | 1c | 2,443$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…c79fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,189$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 1c | 1,989$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 1,674$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf18…5ddcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,632$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,622$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,538$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 1c | 1,527$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,360$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1a…a1ccbacked Yes | 2c | 1,294$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,293$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4b…c780backed Yes | 1c | 1,273$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…4ff5backed Yes | 1c | 1,272$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…386fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,233$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,145$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9faf…6efbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,123$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…1628backed Yes | 1c | 1,097$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…07b9backed Yes | 5c | 1,096$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,061$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba2…003dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,043$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 3c | 994.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e31…a2b1backed Yes | 4c | 926.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a2…5a68backed Yes | 1c | 858.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183d…caabbacked Yes | 2c | 846$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa7…29f3backed Yes | 3c | 823.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed1a…6c60backed Yes | 2c | 774.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 2c | 758.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 2c | 736.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9a…6d6abacked Yes | 4c | 589.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…256cbacked Yes | 3c | 583.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 562.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…47e8backed Yes | 2c | 522.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…7cc8backed Yes | 2c | 516.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 503.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…c012backed Yes | 2c | 499.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcae2…a709backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 4c | 394.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa003…f1e5backed Yes | 4c | 277.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd305…b804backed Yes | 6c | 213.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9b…02a1backed Yes | 7c | 200.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.