IPO · resolved market
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf4c3ba4d1b1568d4309bba0874cb7eec1e5b40a648f4a26b12efa2e9b5ee8a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $464,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $458,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $464,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x643c…3fc2backed No | 0c | 54,251$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 0c | 23,595$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…8e0cbacked No | 46c | 13,658$6,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,268.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb9…d9dabacked No | 3c | 10,024$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0976…8f4ebacked No | 1c | 8,101$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked No | 15c | 8,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…2a4cbacked No | 0c | 7,376$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb379…2d36backed No | 3c | 5,939$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 4c | 5,367$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.15 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed No | 2c | 5,212$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 1c | 5,152$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…13babacked Yes | 65c | 4,373$2,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 1c | 4,180$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…25a7backed No | 6c | 2,894$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 56c | 2,740$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.44 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66eb…ff10backed No | 4c | 2,684$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd9…547abacked No | 3c | 2,233$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 52c | 2,189$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.22 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 2,100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 1,875$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +165%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes | 60c | 1,817$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339d…2b4dbacked No | 1c | 1,774$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,744$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ec…2493backed No | 41c | 1,743$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa994…19a6backed No | 1c | 1,630$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ca…bc04backed No | 1c | 1,628$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 1c | 1,549$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed No | 4c | 1,483$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba85…61c3backed No | 6c | 1,411$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…bd3bbacked No | 1c | 1,333$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…a7febacked No | 2c | 1,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 74c | 1,325$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 2c | 1,318$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…baacbacked Yes | 78c | 1,284$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +143%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 1,284$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc76…0ad0backed No | 15c | 1,242$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…e4b0backed No | 1c | 1,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 11c | 1,175$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82d…bdd8backed No | 1c | 1,158$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked No | 1c | 1,133$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 3cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 9c | 1,117$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.25 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 15c | 1,094$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc570…c2a0backed No | 4c | 1,067$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x601e…7d1dbacked No | 4c | 1,006$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa634…ef90backed No | 6c | 1,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 47c | 1,000$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 959.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 15c | 927.68$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.69 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 45c | 926.02$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 2c | 869$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c32…9af4backed No | 3c | 845.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 6c | 775.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 662.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 5c | 655.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 57c | 654.74$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…4003backed No | 26c | 649$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21f…73ffbacked No | 5c | 644$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 627.42$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.81 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -62%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 72c | 581$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed No | 8c | 572.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 79c | 568.06$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.8 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…47fabacked No | 3c | 560.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 5c | 538$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 10c | 531.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +133%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 527.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 5c | 518.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 2cpaid | +548.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 8c | 496.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 5c | 483.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 5c | 475.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…2c7cbacked No | 29c | 474.84$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…b466backed No | 6c | 440$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Yes | 49c | 420$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 7c | 413.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 3c | 406$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…0bb6backed No | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 20c | 399.96$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x413a…0008backed No | 6c | 386.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…1990backed No | 3c | 385.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288f…5946backed No | 4c | 383.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 33c | 373.24$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.75 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked No | 8c | 369.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 53c | 342.86$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed No | 12c | 337.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…d26abacked No | 12c | 305.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa4…4eabbacked No | 7c | 290.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked No | 5c | 278.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed No | 6c | 277.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 53c | 240$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee49…fc0dbacked Yes | 55c | 239.96$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8f…82c7backed No | 7c | 233.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed No | 20c | 225.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…0822backed No | 10c | 208.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…7d96backed Yes | 70c | 202.18$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 201$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.