IPO · resolved market
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb9d3c46ca316a14d585c1657fb22a76ef24f67d7cd57ed9ecdfe7c419031189
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $249,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $191,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $249,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 28,883$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,835$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 0c | 3,381$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 3cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,151$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0553…462cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,820$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,617$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 1c | 2,130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 2c | 2,034$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f2…d8d4backed Yes | 2c | 1,940$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…faf3backed Yes | 2c | 1,780$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b30…dd49backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 1c | 1,745$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16be…533abacked Yes | 1c | 1,683$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…058cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,650$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,525$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 1,435$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1a…6c60backed Yes | 2c | 1,419$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c11…778fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,397$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 1c | 1,255$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,243$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1845…2cf2backed Yes | 1c | 1,216$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,193$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 2c | 1,160$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,004$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…4ff5backed Yes | 2c | 932.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked Yes | 2c | 883.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 8c | 800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 690.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x786d…b89bbacked Yes | 3c | 690$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8e…4c91backed Yes | 3c | 664.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 569.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e31…a2b1backed Yes | 3c | 405.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 6c | 287.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked No | 70c | 185.1$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.