Macro Indicators · resolved market
Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ffa43ec5c616dbc27941b6744739c982f194d9cac7bfc445f9bbb4a832d3436
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $692,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $750,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $692,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 5c | 61,041$2,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,771.09 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 9c | 58,999$5,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,569.65 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999c…c507backed Yes | 49c | 39,664$19,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,435.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…03e7backed No | 51c | 39,664$20,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,435.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…45edbacked No | 51c | 27,815$14,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,629.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb953…0ce9backed Yes | 49c | 27,815$13,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,629.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 24,858$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebf…874dbacked No | 49c | 24,438$11,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,463.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…f535backed Yes | 51c | 24,438$12,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,463.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 13,803$10,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,588.42 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1518…2652backed Yes | 8c | 7,140$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 13c | 6,106$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 1c | 6,013$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…b491backed No | 60c | 5,456$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,155.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 12c | 5,370$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.64 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 79c | 4,872$3,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.65 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,750$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…9e38backed Yes | 3c | 4,708$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 2c | 3,252$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 47c | 3,050$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…0734backed Yes | 2c | 2,820$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed Yes | 10c | 2,732$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.03 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1767…964ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,559$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 2,117$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed Yes | 2c | 2,064$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…0a0abacked No | 50c | 2,011$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed Yes | 2c | 1,941$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…29a0backed Yes | 1c | 1,861$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…878abacked No | 62c | 1,779$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 2c | 1,673$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 76c | 1,630$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed No | 69c | 1,555$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 10c | 1,504$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 7c | 1,501$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 50c | 1,458$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 38c | 1,424$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.65 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 2c | 1,420$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15e…ab86backed Yes | 2c | 1,360$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22b…d1c1backed Yes | 3c | 1,329$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…bda6backed Yes | 3c | 1,327$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes | 2c | 1,196$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 1,159$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.42 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 17c | 1,100$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95d…b2a1backed No | 71c | 1,049$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 45c | 987.66$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.76 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…9378backed Yes | 2c | 980$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 910.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Yes | 11c | 901.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f5…edcabacked Yes | 2c | 899.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…39f3backed Yes | 2c | 890.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 29c | 823.45$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.55 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6865…5320backed Yes | 37c | 790$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…c685backed No | 63c | 790$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee97…ee69backed Yes | 34c | 782.84$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 15c | 757.16$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes | 2c | 743.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9190…294dbacked Yes | 1c | 739.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5098…f59ebacked Yes | 53c | 738.93$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…b4a8backed Yes | 2c | 737.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…9940backed Yes | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 49c | 649.79$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.06 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…d2f0backed Yes | 31c | 590$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…2f6cbacked No | 69c | 590$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 569.65$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.82 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…a4dfbacked Yes | 2c | 566.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…da7abacked No | 53c | 562.12$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6e…23a5backed No | 63c | 550$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be1…67aebacked Yes | 37c | 550$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…0cdbbacked No | 77c | 513.97$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 68c | 500$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 44c | 468.72$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…d0f3backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…8636backed Yes | 5c | 453.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 51c | 426.41$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.01 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…99eebacked Yes | 31c | 418.19$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 12c | 400$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed No | 53c | 379.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +146.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 50c | 369.02$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.98 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 318$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 303.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 30c | 292.12$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed5…a174backed Yes | 58c | 292.03$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked No | 76c | 271.28$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…3130backed Yes | 6c | 265$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 20c | 235$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 32c | 219.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d22…b357backed No | 49c | 203.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 46c | 203.11$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9169…e2dabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 20c | 190$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 37c | 181$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d9dbbacked Yes | 43c | 180$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…06c5backed No | 44c | 179.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…9b2ebacked Yes | 37c | 176.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…6bb9backed Yes | 58c | 171.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 79c | 160$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fa…f2f0backed No | 64c | 154.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.