TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$670,059
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$614,962

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $670,059 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes5c20,487$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.414818.8%9 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes9c20,000$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.741540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes7c12,633$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.711419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8a…23debacked Yes1c12,560$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.1240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c10,101$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.133313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes16c9,303$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.425928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5226…b4f5backed Yes9c8,892$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.61180%0 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes3c8,812$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.823935.9%14 W · 25 L+9.5wins+0.24per pick12cpaid+185%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x208e…dfd0backed Yes13c8,607$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes6c8,072$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.031827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick15cpaid+71.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes8c8,012$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.8716725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c4b…4382backed Yes16c7,948$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.842227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x207a…6fecbacked Yes13c7,350$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9212934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes4c6,771$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.9955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick31cpaid+54.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes11c6,735$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.81922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes16c6,563$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05037533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbad7…82bcbacked Yes3c6,272$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb38…7935backed Yes15c6,034$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes11c5,388$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.595343.4%23 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes8c5,344$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.082619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-61.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa51b…26b1backed Yes10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x92a0…5218backed Yes1c4,800$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0270%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c3,878$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.651,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22a8…5d12backed Yes14c3,500$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed Yes11c3,126$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.861353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed Yes10c3,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x338a…6356backed Yes16c2,829$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdac…547abacked Yes1c2,560$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes8c2,500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003735.1%13 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes5c2,500$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.51723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-66%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71ed…d338backed Yes20c2,469$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes11c2,407$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.791910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab60…b46cbacked Yes16c2,294$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.514422.7%10 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5db…d774backed Yes1c2,240$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes10c2,139$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.937844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes1c2,120$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a33…fd9cbacked Yes1c2,100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed Yes7c2,054$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507129.6%21 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes14c2,000$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.284928.6%14 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes1c1,920$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46b1…d9edbacked Yes1c1,560$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6176…79e9backed Yes13c1,500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83fe…6b61backed Yes1c1,480$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa909…6badbacked Yes1c1,440$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3991…8deebacked Yes1c1,420$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6195…b1c8backed Yes4c1,410$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+90.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07bd…b49fbacked Yes1c1,320$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa975…f137backed Yes16c1,314$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.23633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes3c1,304$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.122718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-38.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x512b…87b4backed Yes7c1,214$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0704…1858backed Yes17c1,202$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes17c1,201$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20117452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69b4…db29backed Yes11c1,172$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b3…507bbacked Yes17c1,163$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002213.6%3 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-74.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd6cc…6445backed Yes3c1,146$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aed…b8bfbacked Yes1c1,140$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96f3…05a3backed Yes4c1,081$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes16c1,079$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.6223639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes4c1,063$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.923989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes4c1,020$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3214624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes1c1,020$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf9e…e286backed Yes10c1,008$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.81225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-66.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes1c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70254%1 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick7cpaid+54.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae19…11aebacked Yes2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771a…aeb8backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+227.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes1c999.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1390%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x029e…e4e8backed Yes17c972.32$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8650…b3f7backed Yes1c960$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d1…738fbacked Yes11c910$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes1c900$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Yes22c892.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81a1…d4a6backed Yes2c880$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes5c835.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6225…5eb6backed Yes1c800$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb555…e61bbacked Yes12c760.92$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.044630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbea…19f4backed Yes14c720.73$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.83616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-59.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ab…fc03backed Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-59.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf191…06e5backed Yes2c709.49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6870%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4947…d6fabacked Yes8c702.41$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.22385.3%2 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes12c666.67$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801520%3 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeaf…18bebacked Yes15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac57…f164backed Yes11c639.17$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.91425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0590…256bbacked Yes16c626.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.52313%3 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-77.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8bae…3508backed Yes8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes11c624.21$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.284040%16 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x188b…3989backed Yes3c617.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc15e…ab86backed Yes2c590.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6680%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes2c590.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x568a…89b9backed Yes12c572.22$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b46…9940backed Yes3c565.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f5e…52f8backed Yes3c559.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes3c546.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.983915.4%6 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3419…58f3backed Yes2c538.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90dd…14e3backed Yes2c537.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0690%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes4c533$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.652642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes19c521.42$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.843859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x880e…00fcbacked Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-78.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2dd…a930backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb253…d006backed Yes20c499.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.