Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7391c0c0c87078baaa914595d39b6a7037780e992bf264e9cd2b7fed6916d8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $670,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $614,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $670,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 5c | 20,487$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.41 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 9c | 20,000$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717.74 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 7c | 12,633$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.7 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 1c | 12,560$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 10,101$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.1 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 16c | 9,303$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.42 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 9c | 8,892$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.61 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes | 3c | 8,812$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.82 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +9.5wins | +0.24per pick | 12cpaid | +185%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x208e…dfd0backed Yes | 13c | 8,607$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 6c | 8,072$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.03 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 8,012$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.87 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 16c | 7,948$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.84 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Yes | 13c | 7,350$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes | 4c | 6,771$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 11c | 6,735$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 6,563$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad7…82bcbacked Yes | 3c | 6,272$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb38…7935backed Yes | 15c | 6,034$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 11c | 5,388$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.59 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 8c | 5,344$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.08 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 1c | 4,800$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,878$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a8…5d12backed Yes | 14c | 3,500$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed Yes | 11c | 3,126$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338a…6356backed Yes | 16c | 2,829$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…547abacked Yes | 1c | 2,560$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 5c | 2,500$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed Yes | 20c | 2,469$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 11c | 2,407$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.79 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Yes | 16c | 2,294$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.51 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…d774backed Yes | 1c | 2,240$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 10c | 2,139$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.9 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…fd9cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 7c | 2,054$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.28 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,920$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…d9edbacked Yes | 1c | 1,560$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6176…79e9backed Yes | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 1c | 1,480$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 1c | 1,440$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…8deebacked Yes | 1c | 1,420$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…b1c8backed Yes | 4c | 1,410$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…b49fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,320$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed Yes | 16c | 1,314$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 3c | 1,304$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x512b…87b4backed Yes | 7c | 1,214$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0704…1858backed Yes | 17c | 1,202$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 17c | 1,201$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b4…db29backed Yes | 11c | 1,172$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…507bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,163$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cc…6445backed Yes | 3c | 1,146$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…b8bfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f3…05a3backed Yes | 4c | 1,081$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 16c | 1,079$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.62 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 1,063$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 1,020$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes | 1c | 1,020$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…e286backed Yes | 10c | 1,008$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…11aebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…aeb8backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 1c | 999.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029e…e4e8backed Yes | 17c | 972.32$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…b3f7backed Yes | 1c | 960$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d1…738fbacked Yes | 11c | 910$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes | 1c | 900$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Yes | 22c | 892.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a1…d4a6backed Yes | 2c | 880$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 5c | 835.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6225…5eb6backed Yes | 1c | 800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked Yes | 12c | 760.92$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…19f4backed Yes | 14c | 720.73$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ab…fc03backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed Yes | 2c | 709.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 8c | 702.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 12c | 666.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaf…18bebacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…f164backed Yes | 11c | 639.17$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0590…256bbacked Yes | 16c | 626.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bae…3508backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 11c | 624.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…3989backed Yes | 3c | 617.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15e…ab86backed Yes | 2c | 590.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes | 2c | 590.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x568a…89b9backed Yes | 12c | 572.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…9940backed Yes | 3c | 565.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…52f8backed Yes | 3c | 559.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 3c | 546.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 2c | 538.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed Yes | 2c | 537.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 4c | 533$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 19c | 521.42$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880e…00fcbacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…a930backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…d006backed Yes | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.