AI · resolved market
Will Perplexity acquire Chrome in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb72562938f94843f92add2747a6530219377023adf6f98c3b6815c5d59da1ad6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,379,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,552,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,379,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f5b…0e03backed Yes | 3c | 4,587$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 2c | 3,977$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,056$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,929$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 1,371 | 6.8%93 W · 1,278 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,660$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 3c | 2,590$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 2,298$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes | 2c | 2,241$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,234$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 3c | 2,110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de9…7abebacked Yes | 8c | 1,900$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 2c | 1,862$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 2c | 1,831$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,747$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 305 | 27.2%83 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes | 2c | 1,715$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed Yes | 3c | 1,596$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…b3f7backed Yes | 3c | 1,593$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e0…f715backed Yes | 7c | 1,514$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 3c | 1,512$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,325$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed Yes | 3c | 1,210$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…d22dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,108$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 150 | 1.3%2 W · 148 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,030$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…9a64backed Yes | 8c | 957.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…55efbacked Yes | 2c | 936.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…9940backed Yes | 3c | 918.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a2…e0fabacked Yes | 3c | 846.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…9378backed Yes | 3c | 838.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15e…ab86backed Yes | 3c | 816.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 2c | 774.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb054…5ad9backed Yes | 2c | 749.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa92…0d27backed Yes | 2c | 721.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81c…1ec4backed Yes | 3c | 700$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…15c2backed Yes | 9c | 666.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…11aebacked Yes | 2c | 653.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…ec4dbacked Yes | 2c | 646.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…b8bfbacked Yes | 2c | 603.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc9…a153backed Yes | 7c | 549.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…547abacked Yes | 3c | 497.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 462 | 38.7%179 W · 283 L | -33.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4000…c7debacked Yes | 3c | 367.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…186fbacked Yes | 6c | 347.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 8c | 272.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 8c | 255.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…e0b2backed Yes | 5c | 200.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…7416backed Yes | 17c | 64.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 64c | 19.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 138 | 54.3%75 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.