World Politics · resolved market
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f78a02341c8993efc78cfea37699799951debfc9c195ae21ee73c40bd54a31d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $694,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $746,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $694,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92d6…e252backed Yes | 8c | 56,422$4,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,282.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa847…88a5backed Yes | 8c | 56,033$4,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,223.45 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -87%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Yes | 7c | 52,042$3,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,642.97 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d1…7db5backed Yes | 7c | 13,016$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe242…361ebacked Yes | 9c | 10,409$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…4252backed Yes | 5c | 9,743$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 9,491$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 55 | 0%0 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 8,280$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.71 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9414…4f51backed Yes | 10c | 8,215$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 1c | 8,170$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c90…97cdbacked Yes | 17c | 6,202$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 7c | 5,920$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.4 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ae…06ecbacked Yes | 5c | 5,294$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b5…244abacked Yes | 10c | 4,397$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…155ebacked Yes | 7c | 4,281$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.72 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,218$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b04abacked Yes | 6c | 4,000$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.54 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9d…a836backed Yes | 0c | 3,879$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…ecc4backed Yes | 7c | 3,185$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.71 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes | 1c | 3,120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…a494backed Yes | 7c | 2,857$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x763e…b172backed Yes | 8c | 2,742$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed Yes | 1c | 2,660$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 2,582$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.13 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 7c | 2,542$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.36 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9190…294dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,530$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed Yes | 1c | 2,230$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…9ec0backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…d0f3backed Yes | 3c | 1,960$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,640$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 1c | 1,530$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d93…899dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,517$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes | 7c | 1,468$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…9c96backed Yes | 7c | 1,416$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…540cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,295$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 8c | 1,282$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.54 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc1…60acbacked Yes | 9c | 1,200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf63…5a4cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a8…3592backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +411.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 9c | 999.12$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 8c | 917.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…9c74backed Yes | 7c | 852.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 6c | 800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…7b7dbacked Yes | 8c | 765.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…064bbacked Yes | 5c | 729.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b2…7c70backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 511.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 8c | 472.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435c…de47backed Yes | 10c | 435.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 32c | 393.44$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.54 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0a…5f86backed Yes | 7c | 333$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 5c | 296.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe817…6fe0backed Yes | 7c | 277.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f62…7a26backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…cac9backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ff…c01dbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…23bebacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeace…fe6abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…33a7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…8feebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +255%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025?this page
- Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea before September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.