World Politics · resolved market
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea before September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dc5125685720ea000689b32611bc5e2d0fc216fe4cb838b18b5a20ff2c40432
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $391,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $420,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 32,537$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.62 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d6…e252backed Yes | 2c | 29,038$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ae…06ecbacked Yes | 2c | 11,986$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…fdcebacked Yes | 3c | 11,218$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b21…eaf9backed Yes | 2c | 8,081$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 7,905$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.28 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…a494backed Yes | 3c | 6,290$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 2c | 6,065$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.7 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…d0f3backed Yes | 2c | 6,008$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,191$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 3c | 5,156$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.07 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9a73backed Yes | 3c | 4,765$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…d7f2backed Yes | 4c | 4,468$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…d1e6backed Yes | 4c | 4,362$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 3c | 4,321$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.27 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…155ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,104$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.93 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…4252backed Yes | 3c | 3,005$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda43…480fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,968$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…064bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,937$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa847…88a5backed Yes | 3c | 2,830$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -87%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 2c | 2,487$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea5…b5fabacked Yes | 3c | 2,341$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…1339backed Yes | 3c | 2,255$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66f…8b16backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc1…60acbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…540cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,853$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 1c | 1,751$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 1,713$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a8…3592backed Yes | 3c | 1,594$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +411.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a994backed Yes | 3c | 1,570$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec97…6bedbacked Yes | 3c | 1,294$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d1…7db5backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf63…5a4cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,161$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b2…7c70backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…370fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d1…5b3ebacked Yes | 3c | 900$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…e6babacked Yes | 2c | 900$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…5de7backed Yes | 2c | 830.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +657.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 755.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39e7…97c5backed Yes | 3c | 700$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff4…5e65backed Yes | 3c | 684.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +161.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc8…0b6cbacked Yes | 6c | 666.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d93…899dbacked Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…7b7dbacked Yes | 4c | 662.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 3c | 626.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744d…cef9backed Yes | 4c | 600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 4c | 564.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…c0c8backed Yes | 4c | 546.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 3c | 534.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 3c | 529.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…9c74backed Yes | 3c | 491.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…6c17backed Yes | 3c | 384.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d6…256ebacked Yes | 4c | 383.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea1…65fabacked Yes | 4c | 327.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…8399backed Yes | 4c | 319.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…d0d6backed Yes | 4c | 306.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8065…b925backed Yes | 4c | 292.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…1dd6backed Yes | 4c | 256.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 71c | 78.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea before September?this page
- Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.